Sep 23, 2026
Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/23/2026]
Read Article Marlins vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 63.6% win probability for the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
MLB action continues on Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET as the Miami Marlins take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs will start Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.55 ERA), while the Marlins have opted for Ryan Gusto (1-5, 4.14 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Marlins vs. Cubs prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Cubs prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Cubs a 63.6% chance of defeating the Marlins. According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 55.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 6.5 runs has a 58.8% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-144) / Cubs -1.5 (+141)
- Moneyline: Marlins +156, Cubs -163
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-113/+108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 @ 41¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Cubs @ 62¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB action between the Cubs and Marlins at Wrigley Field is scheduled to start at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 63.6% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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