Royals vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]

MLB action continues on Sunday at 1:35 PM ET as the Kansas City Royals take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.

Lake Bachar (1-4, 3.50 ERA) will get the ball for the Pirates, up against Michael Wacha (9-9, 3.34 ERA) for the Royals.

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 53.1% win probability over the Royals.

This article offers a complete Royals vs. Pirates prediction, including best bets and picks.

Royals vs. Pirates prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Royals and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Pirates a 53.1% chance of beating the Royals. According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 65.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 50.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Royals -1.5 (+170) / Pirates +1.5 (-178)
• Moneyline: Royals +108, Pirates -110
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-104/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ 64¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Pirates @ -110 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 8.5 @ -104 via FanDuel

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pirates +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Sunday's MLB game between the Pirates and Royals at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 1:35 PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
• Venue: PNC Park

Conclusion

We predict the Pirates, with a 53.1% win probability, will likely beat the Royals in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.