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Read Article Red Sox vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 55.6% win probability for the Rays at Tropicana Field.
The Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Boston Red Sox in MLB action at Tropicana Field on Sunday, beginning at 1:40 PM ET.
The Rays will have Griffin Jax (7-10, 3.80 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Red Sox have opted for Patrick Sandoval (1-6, 4.99 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Rays as the most likely winner in this Red Sox vs. Rays prediction.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Rays prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Rays a 55.6% chance of beating the Red Sox. According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 61.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-156) / Rays -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Red Sox +138, Rays -141
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (+108/-106)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Red Sox +1.5 @ 61¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Red Sox @ 42¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 48¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB game between the Rays and Red Sox at Tropicana Field is scheduled to begin at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 55.6% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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