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Read Article Braves vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [9/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 61.4% win probability for the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will lock horns in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, starting at 1:05 PM ET.
Jesús Luzardo (13-5, 3.02 ERA) will start for the Phillies, while the Braves are going with Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.62 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Phillies as the most likely winner in this Braves vs. Phillies prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Braves vs. Phillies prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB matchup between the Braves and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Phillies a 61.4% chance of beating the Braves.
According to our model, the Braves (+1.5) have a 55.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 59.1% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Braves +1.5 (-130) / Phillies -1.5 (+127)
- Moneyline: Braves +174, Phillies -170
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-108/+108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 @ 44¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Braves @ 36¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Monday's MLB action between the Phillies and Braves at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to commence at 1:05 PM ET.
- Who: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Monday, September 7, 2026
- Time: 1:05 PM ET/10:05AM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 61.4% win probability, will likely beat the Braves in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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