Sep 25, 2026
Guardians vs. Royals prediction: Cleveland favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/25/2026]
Read Article Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 54.4% win probability for the Padres at Petco Park.
The San Diego Padres and Arizona dbacks are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Petco Park on Friday, starting at 9:40 PM ET.
The Padres will start Casey Mize (6-9, 3.96 ERA), pitting him against Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72 ERA) for the Diamondbacks.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Padres a slight edge with a 54.4% win probability over the Diamondbacks.
This article offers a complete Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Padres a 54.4% chance of beating the Diamondbacks. According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 63.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 55.9% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178) / Padres -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +117, Padres -122
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-106/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Padres -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks @ 46¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB action between the Padres and Diamondbacks at Petco Park is scheduled to commence at 9:40 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Friday, September 25, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Padres, with a 54.4% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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