Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/25/2026]

The San Diego Padres will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Petco Park on Friday, beginning at 9:40 PM ET.

Casey Mize (6-9, 3.96 ERA) will get the ball for the Padres, while the Diamondbacks are going with Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72 ERA).

Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Padres a slight edge with a 54.0% win probability over the Diamondbacks.

This article offers a complete Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction, including best bets and picks.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Padres a 54.0% chance of beating the Diamondbacks. According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 63.6% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-186) / Padres -1.5 (+182)
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +110, Padres -106
• Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-108/+106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Padres -1.5 @ 35¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Padres @ 51¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 7.5 @ 52¢ via Novig

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Friday's MLB matchup between the Padres and Diamondbacks at Petco Park is scheduled to start at 9:40 PM ET.

• Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
• Date: Friday, September 25, 2026
• Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
• Venue: Petco Park

Conclusion

We predict the Padres, with a 54.0% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Friday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.