Atlas vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Atlas vs. Toluca Liga MX match on September 12, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Atlas
2
5
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
AtlasATL
A. Vega (pen.) (19')
Soccer ball icon
J. Angulo (22')
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F. Vinas (29')
Soccer ball icon
Paulinho (53')
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J. Rodriguez (o.g.) (60')
Soccer ball icon
F. Monzon (51')
Soccer ball icon
Duk (79')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Atlas
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atlas: A. Mora replaces M. Capasso
  2. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Luan replaces A. Vega
  3. 81'
    Yellow Card
    J. Serrato (Atlas) cautioned
  4. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atlas: J. Serrato replaces L. Esteves
  5. 79'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atlas by Duk
    2-5
  6. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: V. Guzman replaces J. Angulo
  7. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces N. Castro
  8. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atlas: E. Montiel replaces J. Sanchez
  9. 60'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Rodriguez (o.g.)
    1-5
  10. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: E. del Villar replaces Helinho
  11. 57'
    Yellow Card
    Helinho (Toluca) cautioned
  12. 57'
    Yellow Card
    M. Valenzuela (Atlas) cautioned
  13. 53'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by J. Angulo
    1-4
  14. 51'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atlas by F. Monzon, assisted by L. Esteves
    1-3
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Paulinho replaces F. Vinas
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atlas: Duk replaces A. Gonzalez
  17. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atlas: S. Hernandez replaces P. Ramirez
  18. 29'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by F. Vinas, assisted by Bruno Mendez
    0-3
  19. 24'
    Yellow Card
    M. Capasso (Atlas) cautioned
  20. 22'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Angulo, assisted by N. Castro
    0-2
  21. 19'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by A. Vega (pen.)
    0-1

Atlas vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Atlas vs. Toluca
  • Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
  • Time: 7:05 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Atlas +700, Toluca -270, draw +420
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-176/+142)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Atlas: 14.9%
  • Toluca: 65.6%
  • Draw: 19.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Atlas 0-2 Toluca (10.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Atlas vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 65.6%.

The most likely correct score is Atlas 0-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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