Toluca vs. Cruz Azul Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Cruz Azul Liga MX match on September 26, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Toluca
3
:
3
Estadio Banorte
Cruz Azul
Estadio Banorte
Cruz AzulCRA
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
N. Ibanez (7')
Soccer ball icon
G. Fernandez (38')
Soccer ball icon
G. Fernandez (90')
Soccer ball icon
Helinho (pen.) (55')
Soccer ball icon
A. Vega (56')
Soccer ball icon
A. Vega (78')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Cruz Azul
    5.2%
  • Draw
    89.3%
  • Toluca
    5.5%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Aceves replaces Helinho
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Cruz Azul by G. Fernandez, assisted by A. Montano
    3-3
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: J. Calero replaces J. Paradela
  4. 90'
    Yellow Card
    A. Montano (Cruz Azul) cautioned
  5. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: R. Gonzalez replaces G. Piovi
  6. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: C. Ebere replaces A. Mozo
  7. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz Price replaces A. Vega
  8. 78'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by A. Vega, assisted by N. Castro
    3-2
  9. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: A. Montano replaces N. Ibanez
  10. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Cruz Azul: L. Romero replaces A. Palavecino
  11. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Angulo replaces P. Perez
  12. 57'
    Yellow Card
    G. Piovi (Cruz Azul) cautioned
  13. 56'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by A. Vega, assisted by Helinho
    2-2
  14. 55'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho (pen.)
    1-2
  15. 52'
    Yellow Card
    W. Ditta (Cruz Azul) cautioned
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: E. Gutierrez replaces D. Barbosa
  17. 45'
    Yellow Card
    A. Palavecino (Cruz Azul) cautioned
  18. 45'
    Yellow Card
    A. Mohamed (Toluca) cautioned
  19. 38'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Cruz Azul by G. Fernandez, assisted by N. Ibanez
    0-2
  20. 37'
    Yellow Card
    D. Barbosa (Toluca) cautioned
  21. 7'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Cruz Azul by N. Ibanez, assisted by J. Paradela
    0-1

Toluca vs. Cruz Azul: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Cruz Azul
  • Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
  • Time: 6:50 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Banorte

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +160, Cruz Azul +160, draw +250
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-162/+132)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 34.2%
  • Cruz Azul: 41.9%
  • Draw: 23.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul (10.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Toluca vs. Cruz Azul? Prediction & correct score

Cruz Azul is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 41.9%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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