Valencia vs. Alaves Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Valencia vs. Alaves La Liga match on March 8, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LA LIGA
FINAL
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Alaves
2
3
Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia
Estadio de Mestalla
ValenciaVCF
Score Summary
AlavesALA
J. Guerra (47')
Soccer ball icon
E. Comert (90')
Soccer ball icon
H. Duro (pen.) (90')
Soccer ball icon
L. Boye (pen.) (3')
Soccer ball icon
L. Boye (71')
Soccer ball icon
J. Pacheco (90')
Red Card icon
A. Guevara (90')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Valencia
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Alaves
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Valencia by E. Comert
    2-2
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    A. Guevara (Alaves) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Red Card
    J. Pacheco (Alaves) sent off for a second yellow card
  4. 90'
    Red Card
    A. Guevara (Alaves) sent off for a second yellow card
  5. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Valencia by H. Duro (pen.)
    2-3
  6. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: M. Diaz replaces T. Martinez
  7. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Valencia: D. Raba replaces T. Rendall
  8. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Valencia: A. Almeida replaces J. Guerra
  9. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Valencia: D. Lopez replaces L. Ramazani
  10. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Valencia: H. Duro replaces F. Ugrinic
  11. 71'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Alaves by L. Boye, assisted by D. Suarez
    2-1
  12. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Valencia: A. Danjuma replaces L. Rioja
  13. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Guevara replaces C. Alena
  14. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: D. Suarez replaces J. Guridi
  15. 58'
    Yellow Card
    J. Pacheco (Alaves) cautioned
  16. 47'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Valencia by J. Guerra, assisted by U. Sadiq
    1-1
  17. 43'
    Yellow Card
    Yusi (Alaves) cautioned
  18. 36'
    Yellow Card
    J. Guridi (Alaves) cautioned
  19. 30'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: Yusi replaces C. Protesoni
  20. 17'
    Yellow Card
    L. Ramazani (Valencia) cautioned
  21. 3'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Alaves by L. Boye (pen.)
    1-0

Valencia vs. Alaves: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Valencia vs. Alaves
  • Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026
  • Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio de Mestalla

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Valencia +110, Alaves +310, draw +220
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+152/-179)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Valencia: 45.7%
  • Alaves: 26.3%
  • Draw: 28.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Valencia 1-0 Alaves (13.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Valencia vs. Alaves? Prediction & correct score

Valencia is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 45.7%.

The most likely correct score is Valencia 1-0 Alaves.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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