Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/12/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's La Liga match between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model indicates a 79.4% chance of Real Madrid winning, a 7.6% chance for Rayo Vallecano, and a 13.0% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 70.0% chance of going over., with a 51.3% probability that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Rayo Vallecano +2281, Real Madrid -750
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-335/+300)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Rayo Vallecano @ +1011 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +300 via Novig

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Real Madrid win being the most probable:

• Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano (10.8% probability)
• Real Madrid 3-0 Rayo Vallecano (10.1%)
• Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (8.5%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.3% chance of both sides finding the net and a 48.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's La Liga game between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano is scheduled to begin in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano
• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Real Madrid has a 79.4% win probability on Saturday, Rayo Vallecano has a 7.6% win probability, and there is a 13.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.