Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/12/2026]

Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano are scheduled to meet in La Liga on Saturday, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven La Liga model projects Real Madrid as the most likely winner in this Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

For more, take a look at our insight into the La Liga title race, and how Mourinho can lead Real Madrid back to the top.

Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's La Liga match between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently indicates a 76.6% chance of Real Madrid winning, a 9.4% chance for Rayo Vallecano, and a 14.0% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 71.3% chance of going over., with a 55.8% probability that both teams find the net.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Rayo Vallecano +2339, Real Madrid -625
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-335/+313)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Rayo Vallecano @ +2339 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +313 via Kalshi

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Rayo Vallecano to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Real Madrid win being the most probable:

• Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano (9.7% probability)
• Real Madrid 3-0 Rayo Vallecano (9%)
• Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (8.7%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 55.8% chance of both Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano finding the net and a 44.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's La Liga action between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano is scheduled to commence in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano
• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Real Madrid has a 76.6% win probability on Saturday, Rayo Vallecano has a 9.4% win probability, and there is a 14.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.