Alaves vs. Valencia prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/15/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's La Liga match between Alaves and Valencia, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 48.5% chance of Alaves winning, a 25.2% chance for Valencia, and a 26.3% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 55.5% chance of staying under., with a 51.7% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Valencia +388, Alaves -104
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (+134/-144)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Valencia @ +388 via Novig
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +134 via FanDuel

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Valencia to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 Alaves win being the most probable:

• Alaves 1-0 Valencia (12.6% probability)
• Alaves 1-1 Valencia (12.4%)
• Alaves 2-0 Valencia (9.3%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 48.3% chance of both sides finding the net and a 51.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Tuesday's La Liga game between Alaves and Valencia at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to commence in the United States at 2:00 PM ET.

• Who: Alaves vs. Valencia
• Date: Tuesday, September 15, 2026
• Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00AM PT
• Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Alaves has a 48.5% win probability on Tuesday, Valencia has a 25.2% win probability, and there is a 26.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.