Fresno State vs. Texas State: College Football Week 11 Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' Fresno State vs. Texas State prediction for Saturday, November 14, 2026. Win probabilities, projected final score, current odds, and picks from our College Football machine learning models.
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Fresno State
Predicted score
25
:
35
UFCU Stadium
Texas State
UFCU Stadium
Pre-Game Probabilities Last updated:

Spread

Texas State -7.0
Spread
  • Fresno State
    41.2%
    DraftKingsDraftKings
  • Texas State
    58.8%
    DraftKingsDraftKings

Fresno State vs. Texas State: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: College Football Week 11

  • Teams: Fresno State vs. Texas State
  • Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
  • Time: 4:00PM ET
  • Venue: UFCU Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Fresno State (+7, -105), Texas State (-7, -115)
  • Moneyline: Fresno State +300, Texas State -310
  • Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points (-110/-110)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Fresno State: 20.8%
  • Texas State: 79.2%

These probabilities come from two machine learning models that assess more than 100 data points for each college football matchup, combining their outputs to project all our major betting markets.

Projected final score

Our predicted final score for this college football matchup is Fresno State 25-35 Texas State.

This prediction draws on each team's scoring trends and player stats, weighed across both of our data models

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

The numbers give the Fresno State a win probability of 20.8%, while the Texas State have a win probability of 79.2%.

Summary

Fresno State faces off against Texas State in college football action at UFCU Stadium on Saturday, November 14, 2026.

Our Fresno State vs. Texas State predictions, built on real-time data and matchup-specific modeling, help guide your decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert college football predictions and the best college football bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes college football props, college football futures, college football odds, and the latest college football news.