Montana State vs. Idaho prediction: Why Montana State is favored to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Montana State vs. Idaho, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Montana State an 82.3% chance of defeating Idaho. Our predicted final score has Montana State winning 36-22. According to our model, Idaho (+16.5) has a 56.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 58.5-point over/under has a 50.4% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Montana State -16.5 (-120) / Idaho +16.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Montana State -690, Idaho +475
• Total: Over/Under 58.5 (-111/-111)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Idaho +16.5 @ -110 via bet365
• Moneyline: Idaho @ +475 via bet365
• Total: Under 58.5 @ -111 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Idaho +16.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Friday's college football game between Idaho and Montana State at P1FCU Kibbie Dome is scheduled to start at 10:30 PM ET.

• Who: Montana State vs. Idaho
• Date: Friday, October 2, 2026
• Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30PM PT
• Venue: P1FCU Kibbie Dome

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Conclusion

We predict Montana State, with an 82.3% win probability, will likely beat Idaho in Friday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.