Missouri State vs. SMU prediction favors Southern Methodist to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Missouri State vs. SMU, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Southern Methodist a 98.7% chance of defeating Missouri State. Our predicted final score has Southern Methodist winning 45-13. According to our model, Missouri State (+33.5) has a 52.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 60.5 points has a 51.8% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Missouri State +33.5 (-106) / SMU -33.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Missouri State +3500, SMU -9001
• Total: Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Missouri State +33.5 @ -106 via Caesars
• Moneyline: Southern Methodist @ -9001 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 60.5 @ -110 via FanDuel

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Missouri State +33.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between SMU and Missouri State at Gerald J. Ford Stadium is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Missouri State vs. Southern Methodist
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Southern Methodist, with a 98.7% win probability, will likely beat Missouri State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.