Sep 25, 2026
Clemson vs. California prediction: Why Clemson is favored to win in college football Week 4 [2026]
Read Article Polymarket "Trade of the Day" for College Football Week 4 finds value in Kansas State vs. Cincinnati
First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
See where the Dimers model is finding an edge for trading college football on Polymarket in Week 4.
Week 4 of college football is here, with college football predictions data from Dimers to back up every move you make from Thursday's kickoff through the all-day Saturday slate, whether making long-term championship picks or trading college football on prediction markets.
Prediction markets are on the rise and with more capital moving through platforms like Polymarket than ever before, this is shaping up to be the most-traded college football season yet.
Dimers' "Trade of the Day" is off to a 3-1 start to the season and we're back for another on Saturday, September 26 in Kansas State vs. Cincinnati.
To maximize today's trade value on Polymarket, sign up with the invite code "DIMERS" to get a $50 trading bonus after your initial $10 deposit.
Why trade on Kansas State vs. Cincinnati in Week 4
Kansas State and Cincinnati open Big 12 play in one of the week's best atmospheres, a packed night game at Nippert Stadium.
Kansas State has been a media darling for the past couple of years, and quarterback Avery Johnson is one of the most talented players in the country, but that talent hasn't produced the seasons people expected.
The Wildcats haven't started a season with four straight wins since 2012, and in Johnson's two years as the starter they've lost their road opener both times.
Johnson has struggled on the road and in big moments, and he'll face both on Saturday night.
Cincinnati needed a comeback to win last week after getting caught looking ahead, so expect the Bearcats to be locked in at home in front of a big crowd.
If Johnson plays well here, it's a statement win for him. If he doesn't, Cincinnati has a real chance to pull off a conference upset.
Week 4 Trade of the Day: Cincinnati +6.5 vs. Kansas State
- Dimers probability: 54.4%
- Polymarket trading price: 51.9%
- Edge on Polymarket: 2.5%
Kansas State is favored to win this matchup with Cincinnati, but the Dimers model thinks the spread is too wide.
Dimers' predictive model has simulated this game 10,000 times to estimate each team's chances both to win outright and cover the spread.
Kansas State is the clear favorite to win outright, but the Wildcats are priced even higher, with an implied win probability is about 69.7%, which is almost five points above our model's 65%.
In the spread market, our model gives Cincinnati a 54.4% chance of covering +6.5, and on Polymarket, the Bearcats are trading at 51.9%, so we have a 2.5% edge over the market price.
Cincinnati covers if it wins outright or loses by six or fewer, and our predicted final score of Kansas State 30, Cincinnati 26 keeps the Bearcats inside that number.
Kansas State is still more likely to win the game. But Cincinnati is underpriced to keep it close, and that makes the Bearcats with the points our trade of the week.
Polymarket Disclaimer
This article is part of a paid partnership with Polymarket.
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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