College football week 9 betting preview: Top players to watch and ranked spread picks

Week 9 arrives with no shortage of college football betting action, which means we're back with another look at the most notable angles from Saturday's slate.

Last week was another wild week of college football, with another top team going down in BYU, leaving unbeaten Miami as the last perfect team ranked in the top five.

In our Week 8 betting preview, we called out Miami WR Malachi Toney as overlooked in the Heisman Trophy market at +2800. He cashed a pair of Dimers edges and has shortened his odds to +375 after a 16-catch, 194-yard, 3-TD performance.

That's where Dimers Pro comes in, utilizing our full suite of college football prediction tools to leave no angle uncovered in Week 9.

Dimers' spread picks for ranked games in Week 9

These are the Dimers model's cover probabilities for the favorite in every Week 9 game involving a ranked team.

No ranked team gets more than a 54% chance to cover, with No. 19 SMU the highest of the bunch at 53.5% against Syracuse, and several teams against shorter spreads could be in line for an upset.

Note: Some of these may feature alternate lines, as that's where model has identified the most value on our pick to cover in the game.

No. 1 Miami -14.5 @ UNC 48.0%

No. 2 Ohio State -6.5 @ USC 52.0%

No. 3 Georgia -10.5 vs. Florida 49.8%

No. 4 Indiana -20.5 vs. Minnesota 51.6%

No. 5 Notre Dame -28.5 @ Navy 49.2%

No. 7 UCLA -23.5 vs. Nevada 47.6%

No. 8 BYU -16.5 vs. Arizona State 48.4%

No. 11 Texas -20.5 vs. Mississippi State 49.8%

No. 12 Ole Miss -10.5 vs. Auburn 51.4%

No. 13 Texas Tech -3.5 vs. No. 22 Arizona 50.8%

No. 14 Wake Forest -13.5 vs. Virginia 48.2%

No. 19 SMU -12.5 @ Syracuse 53.5%

No. 20 Northwestern +3.5 @ Oregon 45.1%

No. 20 Boise State -10.5 vs. Texas State 51.0%

No. 23 Missouri -10.5 @ Arkansas 46.0%

No. 24 Oklahoma State -8.5 @ Iowa State 50.5%

No. 25 Wisconsin +4.5 @ Iowa 49.9%

Best college football games to watch in Week 9

There are a pair of ranked-on-ranked games this weekend, as well as two ranked teams as underdogs against an unranked opponent in important games for both sides.

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 17 Florida

The Georgia vs. Florida rivalry moves to Mercedes-Benz Stadium this year, and Georgia (6-1) comes in off a bye after its only loss to Auburn.

Florida (5-2) has been hard to read in Jon Sumrall’s first season: it has beaten Ole Miss and Texas but been blown out by South Carolina and Missouri.

The matchup favors Georgia, and Gunner Stockton is completing 74.1% of his passes with 16 TDs, and Florida’s defense ranks 118th in EPA per play.

Dimers gives Georgia a 78.9% chance to win, almost exactly what the -388 moneyline implies. Our projected 33-22 final is an 11-point margin, just past the 10.5-point spread, and 55 total points sits right next to the 55.5 total.

No. 13 Texas Tech vs. No. 22 Arizona

Two 6-1 Big 12 teams in Texas Tech vs. Arizona meet in Lubbock, and Arizona arrives on a five-game win streak after a 39-3 rout of Iowa State.

The loser of this game picks up their second loss, which in the current makeup of the Top 25, isn't the worst result for making the CFP, but it will hurt Arizona more.

QB Noah Fifita ranks second in FBS with a 74.2% completion rate, and Arizona’s defense is seventh nationally in sacks per game.

History favors the home team: Arizona is 1-13 all-time in Lubbock, and Dimers makes Texas Tech a 61.0% favorite to win, almost identical to the market’s -160.

With the spread at just 3.5, the projected 29-25 final has the Red Raiders covering by half a point.

Oregon vs. No. 20 Northwestern

Oregon is unranked at 4-3 after losing 21-10 to Illinois. Dante Moore isn’t expected back this season after his concussion, and Dan Lanning fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer this week, so Jay Johnson now runs the offense.

The Ducks need to win out for any realistic CFP hope, and Oregon vs. Northwestern is one of only two ranked teams this week listed as an underdog.

Dimers backs that and gives Oregon a 63.1% chance to win, and Northwestern +3.5 covers just 45.1% of the time.

That makes Oregon -3.5 the model’s side, while our projected 48 points is also well under the 52.5 total, which fits an offense breaking in a new play-caller.

Iowa vs. No. 25 Wisconsin

Heading into Wisconsin vs. Iowa, the Badgers are ranked for the first time since 2023 after upsetting USC, and Luke Fickell needs this win.

He’s 0-3 against Iowa, outscored 94-16 in those games, and Iowa has outrushed Wisconsin 740-350 over that stretch.

But they'll bring a defense equipped to flip that script;  the Badgers’ run defense ranks 16th nationally at 96.6 yards per game ahead of its biggest test of the year at Kinnick.

Dimers has Iowa at 63.4% to win, a bit above the -156 moneyline, so the Hawkeyes are a fair favorite even at home against a ranked opponent. Our projected 21-17 final is a 4-point margin, just inside the 4.5-point spread, and 38 total points is almost two points under the 39.5 total.

Top college football players to watch in Week 9

These are players who need to be on your radar this weekend, whether for player prop betting or keeping tabs on the Heisman race:

WR Jesse LeGree (Oregon State)

LeGree has been the best receiver in the country so far.

Through seven games he led the nation with 1,040 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 148.6 yards per game, and he had 100+ yards in every one of those games, and he's also scored multiple touchdowns in four straight games.

Despite that, his Heisman price has drifted from +1800 to +2000, so the market still isn’t treating a freshman receiver from Oregon State as a serious contender behind other alpha WRs Jeremiah Smith and Malachi Toney, but Dimers has no such doubt about his weekly production.

The biggest edge on the board is his receiving yards: the over 125.5 hits 72.8% of the time at -115 and he’s an 83.2% chance to score a touchdown, but at -350 that leaves only a 5.4% edge.

If you want his touchdown upside, 2+ touchdowns is the better price: 46.9% at +145 for a 6.1% edge, which fits his current streak.

WR Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State)

Smith is still the Heisman favorite, but his price has drifted from -130 to +100 during the bye.

Julian Sayin went down at Indiana, and Ohio State will start a backup at USC: freshman Luke Fahey is expected to get the nod, with Tavien St. Clair also in the mix.

Smith is a 74.2% chance to score a touchdown at -165, an 11.9% edge that earns a High Edge tag, and the value holds as you go up the ladder.

He’s a 34.2% chance to score 2+ touchdowns at +300 (a 9.2% edge), and a 20.7% chance to score first at +475 (a 3.3% edge). Even 3+ touchdowns at +1300 gets a 2.7% edge.

With an inexperienced quarterback under center, Dimers expects the offense to run through its best player if they can connect.

QB Gunner Stockton (Georgia)

Stockton is coming off his worst game of the season, two interceptions in the loss to Auburn, but he faces a defense that should help him bounce back.

Florida ranks 118th in EPA per play and 110th in EPA per pass allowed and Stockton is completing 74.1% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Both of his lines this week sit above his season averages, and Dimers still projects him to clear both against this defense.

Over 237.5 passing yards hits 60.8% of the time at -114, a 7.5% edge with a Sweet Spot tag (9.1% ROI). The better value is on the ground, where over 25.5 rushing yards comes in at 62.7% at -115, a 9.2% edge.

Georgia is projected to score 33 points as a 10.5-point favorite, so Stockton should have room to work both ways.

Dimers' Sweet Spots to look for in Week 9

The "Sweet Spot" is a Dimers Pro feature that identifies the specific betting markets and edge ranges where our model is returning a positive profit over the course of the season.

Across game lines and props, these markets below are where we are seeing the biggest returns so far this season.

The 3+ touchdown market enters the fray this week after a strong weekend  while the passing game proves to be the most consistent market in props.

We've said it before, but that really drives home that when we most disagree with the books, we're also the most right.

College Football National Championship update: Who will win it all?

After 8 weeks of college football, Ohio State is the Dimers model’s favorite to win the National Championship, and its lead has grown.

The Buckeyes are up to 25.5% from 20.0% last week, even though they didn’t play, as several other top contenders took a hit. Their best price has also drifted from +500 to +530, so their edge over the market has nearly tripled, from 3.3% to 9.6%.

Ohio State, Georgia and Notre Dame all had byes. Miami blew out Pittsburgh, and Indiana needed overtime to get past Michigan in a 13-6 rock fight. The market’s biggest move came on Indiana, whose price was cut from +1100 to +800, wiping out most of the value the Hoosiers had last week.

Here’s how the top five stack up after Week 8 according to Dimers’ National Championship Predictions.

Fair odds are what each team’s price should be based on its Dimers probability. When the best available odds are longer than the fair odds, there’s value.

Ohio State (25.5%, +530) The Buckeyes didn’t play, but they picked up 5.5 percentage points in the model. The market went the other way and moved them from +500 to +530, and the gap between the two is the largest on the board: at +292 fair odds, Ohio State’s 9.6% edge is easily the best value among the contenders.

Georgia (17.3%, +475) The Bulldogs were also off and barely moved, slipping from 17.5% to 17.3%. Their price shortened from +500 to +475, which puts them right at fair odds of +478. Georgia returns against Florida in Atlanta this weekend.

Notre Dame (13.6%, +500) The Irish rose slightly during their bye, from 13.2% to 13.6%, and their price lengthened from +460 to +500. Both moves help, but the market is still ahead of the +635 fair price, so the edge is -3.1%, improved from -4.7% but still the worst in the top five.

Indiana (12.8%, +800) The Hoosiers won at Michigan for the first time since 1967, 13-6 in overtime, and Josh Hoover’s 4-yard touchdown run in OT was the only touchdown of the game. We nudged Indiana up from 12.1% to 12.8%, but the market cut the price sharply from +1100 to +800. That drops the edge from +3.8% to +1.7%. Indiana is still one of only two contenders with positive value, but the best of the discount is gone.

Miami (FL) (12.3%, +650) Miami had the most impressive Saturday of the group, routing Pittsburgh 52-23 in its first game ranked No. 1 since 2002. Darian Mensah threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns, and Malachi Toney caught 16 passes for 194 yards and three scores. At +650 against +713 fair odds, they’re slightly overpriced, with a -1.0% edge.

Bet on college football in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the college football season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single college football game this season via Dimers' college football predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both college football and NFL, as well as all in-season sports during that time.