Arkansas State vs. Memphis prediction: Why Memphis is favored to win in college football Week 1 [2026]

Memphis and Arkansas State will meet in Week 1 college football action at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on Saturday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced college football model projects Memphis as the most likely winner in this Arkansas State vs. Memphis prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.

Arkansas State vs. Memphis prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Arkansas State vs. Memphis, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Memphis a 71.9% chance of beating Arkansas State. Our predicted final score has Memphis winning 30-21.

According to our model, Arkansas State (+10.5) has a 54.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 55.5 points has a 60.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Arkansas State +10.5 (-105) / Memphis -10.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Arkansas State +360, Memphis -325
• Total: Over/Under 55.5 (-110/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Arkansas State +10.5 @ -105 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Arkansas State @ +360 via ESPN BET
• Total: Under 55.5 @ -110 via BetMGM

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 55.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between Memphis and Arkansas State at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Arkansas State vs. Memphis
• Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

College football Week 1 promos

Make the most of Dimers' Arkansas State vs. Memphis predictions by exploring the Underdog Fantasy offfer below

Conclusion

We predict Memphis, with a 71.9% win probability, will likely beat Arkansas State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.