UMBC vs. Towson prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 14, 2026

Towson is favored to beat UMBC at SECU Arena on Saturday (7:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our UMBC vs. Towson prediction gives the Retrievers an 85.6% chance of getting the W, and the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Towson to cover at -10.5, too.

UMBC vs. Towson key predictions

• Predicted score: Towson 79-67 UMBC
• Towson win probability: 85.6%
• UMBC win probability: 14.4%
• Towson -10.5 spread: 54.3% cover probability
• Over 144.5 points: 54.0% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

UMBC vs. Towson odds

These are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.

• UMBC moneyline: +425 (BetMGM)
• Towson moneyline: -530 (FanDuel)
• UMBC +10.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Towson -10.5: -102 (FanDuel)
• Over 144.5 points: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Under 144.5 points: -105 (FanDuel)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

UMBC vs. Towson pick: Towson -10.5 (-102)

Our model makes Towson the likelier winner, and our best value bet is the Retrievers to cover the -10.5 spread at -102 on FanDuel, too.

Those odds give Towson an implied cover probability of 50.5%, while our model puts it at 54.3%.

That's a 3.8% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.

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UMBC vs. Towson game details

• Matchup: UMBC Retrievers vs. Towson Tigers
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: SECU Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

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