Toledo vs. Detroit Mercy prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 14, 2026

Toledo is favored to beat Detroit Mercy at Calihan Hall on Saturday (4:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Toledo vs. Detroit Mercy prediction gives the Rockets an 82.8% chance of getting the W, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Detroit Mercy to cover at +11.5.

Toledo vs. Detroit Mercy key predictions

• Predicted score: Toledo 80-70 Detroit Mercy
• Toledo win probability: 82.8%
• Detroit Mercy win probability: 17.2%
• Detroit Mercy +11.5 spread: 54.1% cover probability
• Under 152.5 points: 52.7% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Toledo vs. Detroit Mercy odds

Below are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Toledo moneyline: -675 (DraftKings)
• Detroit Mercy moneyline: +530 (FanDuel)
• Toledo -11.5: -105 (BetMGM)
• Detroit Mercy +11.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Over 152.5 points: -115 (BetMGM)
• Under 152.5 points: -105 (BetMGM)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Toledo vs. Detroit Mercy pick: Detroit Mercy +11.5 (-110)

Our model makes Toledo the more likely winner, but our best value bet is Detroit Mercy to cover the +11.5 spread at -110 on Caesars Sportsbook.

Those odds give Detroit Mercy an implied cover probability of 52.4%, while our model puts it at 54.1%.

That's a 1.8% edge (accounting for rounding), the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.

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• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
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Toledo vs. Detroit Mercy game details

• Matchup: Toledo Rockets vs. Detroit Mercy
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Time: 4:00 PM ET
• Venue: Calihan Hall

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.