Morgan State vs. UMBC prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 12, 2026

UMBC is favored to beat Morgan State at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena on Thursday (6:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Morgan State vs. UMBC prediction gives Morgan State a 73.0% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 161.5 points.

Morgan State vs. UMBC key predictions

• Predicted score: UMBC 82-75 Morgan State
• UMBC win probability: 73.0%
• Morgan State win probability: 27.0%
• UMBC -6.5 spread: 50.8% cover probability
• Under 161.5 points: 53.6% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Morgan State vs. UMBC odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Morgan State moneyline: +230 (FanDuel)
• UMBC moneyline: -275 (BetMGM)
• Morgan State +6.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• UMBC -6.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Over 161.5 points: -108 (BetRivers)
• Under 161.5 points: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Morgan State vs. UMBC pick: Under 161.5 (-110)

Our model makes UMBC the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 161.5 total points at -110 on Caesars Sportsbook.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 52.4%, while our model puts it at 53.6%.

That's a 1.2% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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Morgan State vs. UMBC game details

• Matchup: Morgan State vs. UMBC Retrievers
• Date: Thursday, November 12, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET
• Venue: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.