USC vs. California prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 11, 2026

USC is favored to beat California at Haas Pavilion on Wednesday (11:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our USC vs. California prediction gives the Trojans a 78.3% chance of winning, and the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the USC moneyline, too.

USC vs. California key predictions

• Predicted score: USC 84-75 California
• USC win probability: 78.3%
• California win probability: 21.7%
• USC -8.5 spread: 50.9% cover probability
• Under 160.5 points: 51.3% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

USC vs. California odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• USC moneyline: -355 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• California moneyline: +315 (FanDuel)
• USC -8.5: -105 (BetMGM)
• California +8.5: -108 (FanDuel)
• Over 160.5 points: -105 (BetMGM)
• Under 160.5 points: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

USC vs. California pick: USC ML (-355)

Our model makes USC the likelier winner, and our best value bet is the Trojans moneyline at -355 on Caesars Sportsbook, too.

Those odds give USC an implied win probability of 78.0%, while our model puts it at 78.3%.

That's a 0.2% edge (accounting for rounding), the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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USC vs. California game details

• Matchup: USC Trojans vs. California Golden Bears
• Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026
• Time: 11:00 PM ET
• Venue: Haas Pavilion

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.