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Lightning vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Sabres NHL game on April 6, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
2
4
Apr 6, 11PM KeyBank Center
Apr 6, 11PM KeyBank Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Bets
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Sabres | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Sabres | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
P3 19:47 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 18:18 Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
P3 17:56 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 14:14 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 13:29 Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 11:44 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 10:59 Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 10:19 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 09:32 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 08:40 Shot missed by Mitchell Chaffee
P3 06:20 Shot missed by Corey Perry
P3 05:06 Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 04:23 Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 03:14 Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 03:05 Nick Paul shot blocked by Luke Schenn
P3 01:51 Shot missed by Mattias Samuelsson
P3 01:24 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 01:10 Josh Doan shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P2 19:56 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P2 18:03 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Zach Benson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Paul
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Dunne in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Erik Cernak credited with hit on Alex Tuch in neutral zone
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Lightning won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Alex Tuch in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Josh Dunne won faceoff against Mitchell Chaffee in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Lightning won faceoff against Rasmus Dahlin in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Paul
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Mitchell Chaffee
Stoppage - Icing
Luke Schenn credited with hit on Corey Perry in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Corey Perry
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stoppage - Icing
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Mitchell Chaffee in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
SHOT
Nick Paul shot blocked by Luke Schenn
Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Dunne in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Mattias Samuelsson
Josh Norris won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
SHOT
Josh Doan shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
Emil Lilleberg credited with hit on Jack Quinn in defensive zone
Giveaway by Jason Zucker in neutral zone
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Zach Benson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Shorthanded - Takeaway by Beck Malenstyn in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Nick Paul won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
Alex Tuch credited with hit on Erik Cernak in offensive zone
Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Shorthanded - Takeaway by Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Power play - Takeaway by Rasmus Dahlin in defensive zone
Power play - Giveaway by Josh Norris in offensive zone
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Misconduct
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Josh Dunne won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Josh Doan
Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Brayden Point credited with hit on Mattias Samuelsson in offensive zone
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Beck Malenstyn in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Shorthanded - Alex Tuch won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
Penalty to Jack Quinn 2 minutes for Misconduct
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
Stoppage - Icing
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Dunne in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
SHOT
Power play - Zach Benson shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Power play - Tage Thompson won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
Penalty to Zemgus Girgensons 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Josh Doan)
Tage Thompson credited with hit on Erik Cernak in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Alex Tuch
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
Darren Raddysh won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
Stoppage - Net Dislodged Offensive Skater
SHOT
Jason Zucker shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
SHOT
Shot on goal by Beck Malenstyn saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Josh Dunne won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
Nick Paul won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
Shorthanded - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Owen Power
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
Penalty to Corey Perry 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Josh Dunne)
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Alex Tuch
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Power play - Tage Thompson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in defensive zone
Tage Thompson won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Nick Paul won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in offensive zone
Penalty to Alex Tuch 2 minutes for Holding Stick (Drawn by J.J. Moser)
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Jason Zucker shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Josh Norris
SHOT
Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 25 | Shots on Goal | 29 | |||
| 53% | Faceoff Win % | 48% | |||
| 5/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 4/0 | |||
| 12 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 14 | |||
| 28 | Hits | 22 | |||
| 10 | Shots Blocked | 10 | |||
| 18 | Giveaways | 13 |
| |
|---|
| 25 | Shots on Goal | 29 | |||
| 53% | Faceoff Win % | 48% | |||
| 5/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 4/0 | |||
| 12 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 14 | |||
| 28 | Hits | 22 | |||
| 10 | Shots Blocked | 10 | |||
| 18 | Giveaways | 13 |
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Lightning vs. Sabres: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Lightning vs. Sabres
- Date: Monday, April 6, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: KeyBank Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6.5
- Moneyline Odds: Lightning -106, Sabres +106
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Lightning: 52%
- Sabres: 48%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 52%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 48%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Sabres in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Lightning vs. Sabres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
