Lightning vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Sabres NHL game on April 6, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Lightning
2
4
KeyBank Center
Sabres
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TEAM123T
Lightning
1 1 0 2
Sabres
2 1 1 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    0%
  • Sabres
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
1 1 0 2
Sabres
2 1 1 4
P3 19:47 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 18:18 Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
P3 17:56 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 14:14 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 13:29 Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 11:44 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 10:59 Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 10:19 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 09:32 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 08:40 Shot missed by Mitchell Chaffee
P3 06:20 Shot missed by Corey Perry
P3 05:06 Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 04:23 Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 03:14 Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 03:05 Nick Paul shot blocked by Luke Schenn
P3 01:51 Shot missed by Mattias Samuelsson
P3 01:24 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 01:10 Josh Doan shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P2 19:56 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P2 18:03 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Zach Benson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  3. P3 18:18
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
  4. P3 18:06
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Dunne in neutral zone
  5. P3 17:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  6. P3 17:20
    Erik Cernak credited with hit on Alex Tuch in neutral zone
  7. P3 16:44
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  8. P3 16:44
    Stoppage - Icing
  9. P3 15:58
    Lightning won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  10. P3 15:56
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  11. P3 14:15
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Alex Tuch in offensive zone
  12. P3 14:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  13. P3 14:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  14. P3 13:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  15. P3 12:44
    Josh Dunne won faceoff against Mitchell Chaffee in neutral zone
  16. P3 11:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  17. P3 10:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  18. P3 10:40
    Lightning won faceoff against Rasmus Dahlin in offensive zone
  19. P3 10:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  20. P3 09:52
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  21. P3 09:52
    Stoppage - Icing
  22. P3 09:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  23. P3 09:22
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  24. P3 09:22
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  25. P3 08:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mitchell Chaffee
  26. P3 08:36
    Stoppage - Icing
  27. P3 06:48
    Luke Schenn credited with hit on Corey Perry in defensive zone
  28. P3 06:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Corey Perry
  29. P3 05:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  30. P3 04:25
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  31. P3 04:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  32. P3 04:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  33. P3 04:16
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  34. P3 03:16
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Mitchell Chaffee in neutral zone
  35. P3 03:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  36. P3 03:05
    SHOT
    Nick Paul shot blocked by Luke Schenn
  37. P3 02:32
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Dunne in offensive zone
  38. P3 01:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mattias Samuelsson
  39. P3 01:29
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  40. P3 01:29
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  41. P3 01:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  42. P3 01:10
    SHOT
    Josh Doan shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  43. P3 00:30
    Emil Lilleberg credited with hit on Jack Quinn in defensive zone
  44. P3 00:10
    Giveaway by Jason Zucker in neutral zone
  45. P3 00:00
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  46. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  47. P2 19:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  48. P2 19:29
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  49. P2 19:29
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  50. P2 18:03
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Zach Benson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  51. P2 17:04
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Beck Malenstyn in defensive zone
  52. P2 16:55
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  53. P2 16:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  54. P2 16:22
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
  55. P2 15:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  56. P2 15:40
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
  57. P2 15:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  58. P2 15:38
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by teammate
  59. P2 14:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  60. P2 14:16
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  61. P2 13:30
    Alex Tuch credited with hit on Erik Cernak in offensive zone
  62. P2 13:20
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  63. P2 13:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  64. P2 11:38
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
  65. P2 11:29
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  66. P2 11:04
    Power play - Takeaway by Rasmus Dahlin in defensive zone
  67. P2 10:47
    Power play - Giveaway by Josh Norris in offensive zone
  68. P2 10:05
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  69. P2 10:05
    Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Misconduct
  70. P2 09:42
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  71. P2 09:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  72. P2 08:53
    Josh Dunne won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  73. P2 08:53
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  74. P2 08:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Josh Doan
  75. P2 07:38
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  76. P2 07:29
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  77. P2 06:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  78. P2 06:23
    Brayden Point credited with hit on Mattias Samuelsson in offensive zone
  79. P2 05:48
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Beck Malenstyn in defensive zone
  80. P2 05:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  81. P2 05:45
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  82. P2 04:06
    Shorthanded - Alex Tuch won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  83. P2 04:06
    Penalty to Jack Quinn 2 minutes for Misconduct
  84. P2 03:56
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  85. P2 03:34
    Stoppage - Icing
  86. P2 03:22
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  87. P2 03:19
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  88. P2 03:19
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  89. P2 02:48
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  90. P2 02:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  91. P2 02:12
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Dunne in defensive zone
  92. P2 02:12
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  93. P2 01:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Zach Benson shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
  94. P2 00:36
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  95. P2 00:00
    Power play - Tage Thompson won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  96. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  97. P1 19:25
    Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  98. P1 19:25
    Penalty to Zemgus Girgensons 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Josh Doan)
  99. P1 19:04
    Tage Thompson credited with hit on Erik Cernak in offensive zone
  100. P1 18:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  101. P1 16:53
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  102. P1 16:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  103. P1 16:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  104. P1 16:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  105. P1 16:25
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  106. P1 16:25
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  107. P1 16:10
    Darren Raddysh won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  108. P1 16:10
    Stoppage - Net Dislodged Offensive Skater
  109. P1 15:35
    SHOT
    Jason Zucker shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
  110. P1 15:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Beck Malenstyn saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  111. P1 14:38
    Josh Dunne won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  112. P1 14:38
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  113. P1 14:04
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  114. P1 13:40
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  115. P1 13:01
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  116. P1 13:01
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  117. P1 11:45
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  118. P1 11:26
    Shorthanded - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  119. P1 11:26
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  120. P1 11:02
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  121. P1 10:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Owen Power
  122. P1 10:03
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  123. P1 10:03
    Penalty to Corey Perry 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Josh Dunne)
  124. P1 09:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  125. P1 08:42
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  126. P1 07:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  127. P1 07:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Tage Thompson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  128. P1 07:19
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in defensive zone
  129. P1 05:42
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  130. P1 05:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
  131. P1 04:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  132. P1 04:42
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  133. P1 04:39
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  134. P1 03:33
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in offensive zone
  135. P1 03:33
    Penalty to Alex Tuch 2 minutes for Holding Stick (Drawn by J.J. Moser)
  136. P1 02:39
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  137. P1 01:59
    SHOT
    Power play - Jason Zucker shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  138. P1 01:56
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  139. P1 01:37
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  140. P1 01:35
    SHOT
    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Josh Norris
  141. P1 00:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
  142. P1 00:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Sabres
25Shots on Goal29
53% Faceoff Win % 48%
5/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
12Penalty Infraction Mins14
28Hits22
10 Shots Blocked 10
18Giveaways13
LightningTB
SabresBUF
25Shots on Goal29
53% Faceoff Win % 48%
5/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
12Penalty Infraction Mins14
28Hits22
10 Shots Blocked 10
18Giveaways13

Lightning vs. Sabres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Sabres
  • Date: Monday, April 6, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning 51¢, Sabres 48¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 52%
  • Sabres: 48%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 52%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 48%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Sabres in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Sabres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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