Lightning vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Sabres NHL game on March 8, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Lightning
7
8
KeyBank Center
Sabres
KeyBank Center
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 4 3 7
Sabres
1 3 4 8
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    0%
  • Sabres
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 4 3 7
Sabres
1 3 4 8
P3 19:35 Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 17:54 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 16:43 Victor Hedman shot blocked by Alex Tuch
P3 16:39 Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Owen Power
P3 15:40 Power play - Shot missed by Jason Zucker
P3 14:59 Shot on goal by Noah Ostlund saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 14:28 Shot missed by Jason Zucker
P3 12:52 Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:18 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 11:07 Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 10:17 Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 09:47 Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
P3 08:30 Shot missed by Alex Tuch
P3 06:58 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 06:11 Shot on goal by Sam Carrick saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 05:45 Brayden Point shot blocked by Owen Power
P3 05:42 Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 04:34 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 04:03 Shot missed by Jason Zucker
P3 03:57 Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Jonas Johansson
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  3. P3 19:09
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  4. P3 17:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  5. P3 16:43
    SHOT
    Victor Hedman shot blocked by Alex Tuch
  6. P3 16:39
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Owen Power
  7. P3 15:43
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Noah Ostlund in neutral zone
  8. P3 15:40
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jason Zucker
  9. P3 15:03
    Power play - Jason Zucker won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  10. P3 14:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Ostlund saved by Jonas Johansson
  11. P3 14:29
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  12. P3 14:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jason Zucker
  13. P3 13:53
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  14. P3 13:53
    Stoppage - Icing
  15. P3 12:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Jonas Johansson
  16. P3 12:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  17. P3 11:55
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  18. P3 11:55
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  19. P3 11:40
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  20. P3 11:40
    Stoppage - Icing
  21. P3 11:30
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  22. P3 11:30
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  23. P3 11:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Jonas Johansson
  24. P3 11:03
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  25. P3 10:19
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Noah Ostlund in neutral zone
  26. P3 10:19
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  27. P3 10:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Jonas Johansson
  28. P3 09:48
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  29. P3 09:47
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
    7-5
  30. P3 09:34
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in offensive zone
  31. P3 08:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  32. P3 06:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  33. P3 06:28
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  34. P3 06:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sam Carrick saved by Jonas Johansson
  35. P3 05:46
    Sam Carrick won faceoff against Conor Geekie in neutral zone
  36. P3 05:45
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Owen Power
  37. P3 05:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  38. P3 05:15
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  39. P3 04:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  40. P3 04:21
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  41. P3 04:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  42. P3 04:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jason Zucker
  43. P3 03:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Quinn saved by Jonas Johansson
  44. P3 03:07
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
  45. P3 01:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  46. P3 00:59
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  47. P3 00:13
    SHOT
    Victor Hedman shot blocked by Ryan McLeod
  48. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  49. P2 19:40
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  50. P2 19:40
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
  51. P2 19:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  52. P2 18:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Jonas Johansson
  53. P2 17:37
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Sam Carrick in neutral zone
  54. P2 17:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  55. P2 15:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Owen Power
  56. P2 15:21
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  57. P2 15:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sam Carrick saved by Jonas Johansson
  58. P2 15:16
    SHOT
    Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by teammate
  59. P2 14:49
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  60. P2 14:49
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  61. P2 14:46
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  62. P2 14:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  63. P2 13:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Jonas Johansson
  64. P2 12:59
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in offensive zone
  65. P2 12:59
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  66. P2 12:55
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  67. P2 12:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  68. P2 12:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Alex Tuch
  69. P2 11:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  70. P2 11:07
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  71. P2 11:06
    GOAL
    Shorthanded - Goal scored by Alex Tuch
    1-4
  72. P2 10:56
    Penalty to Owen Power 2 minutes for High Sticking
  73. P2 10:56
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  74. P2 10:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  75. P2 10:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Jonas Johansson
  76. P2 09:53
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  77. P2 09:53
    Stoppage - Icing
  78. P2 09:40
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Equipment
  79. P2 08:51
    SHOT
    Victor Hedman shot blocked by teammate
  80. P2 08:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lightning
  81. P2 08:11
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  82. P2 07:55
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  83. P2 06:29
    Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  84. P2 05:10
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  85. P2 05:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  86. P2 03:35
    Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  87. P2 03:05
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Josh Norris
  88. P2 03:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lightning
  89. P2 02:56
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  90. P2 02:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  91. P2 01:42
    Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Jason Zucker in defensive zone
  92. P2 01:31
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  93. P2 01:31
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  94. P2 01:31
    Penalty to Ryan McDonagh 2 minutes for High Sticking
  95. P2 00:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Jonas Johansson
  96. P2 00:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  97. P2 00:06
    Penalty to Erik Cernak 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Michael Kesselring)
  98. P2 00:06
    Penalty to Corey Perry 2 minutes for Misconduct
  99. P2 00:00
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  100. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  101. P1 19:30
    Stoppage - Icing
  102. P1 19:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zach Benson
  103. P1 18:37
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  104. P1 17:26
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brayden Point
  105. P1 17:14
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Jonas Johansson
  106. P1 16:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
  107. P1 16:03
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  108. P1 16:03
    Stoppage - Offside
  109. P1 15:19
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  110. P1 15:19
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  111. P1 14:59
    Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Misconduct
  112. P1 14:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  113. P1 14:08
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  114. P1 14:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Jonas Johansson
  115. P1 13:40
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  116. P1 13:00
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  117. P1 13:00
    Stoppage - Icing
  118. P1 11:31
    Giveaway by Michael Kesselring in defensive zone
  119. P1 10:40
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
  120. P1 10:14
    Lightning won faceoff against Sabres in defensive zone
  121. P1 09:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  122. P1 09:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  123. P1 09:13
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  124. P1 09:13
    Penalty to Charle-Edouard D'Astous 2 minutes for Misconduct
  125. P1 09:13
    Penalty to Peyton Krebs 2 minutes for Misconduct
  126. P1 08:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Jonas Johansson
  127. P1 08:54
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  128. P1 08:26
    Sam Carrick won faceoff against Conor Geekie in neutral zone
  129. P1 08:20
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  130. P1 08:20
    Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Josh Norris)
  131. P1 07:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  132. P1 06:48
    SHOT
    Owen Power shot blocked by teammate
  133. P1 06:45
    Sam Carrick won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  134. P1 06:43
    SHOT
    Ryan McLeod shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  135. P1 06:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Tage Thompson shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  136. P1 04:46
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  137. P1 04:36
    Penalty to Rasmus Dahlin 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Darren Raddysh)
  138. P1 04:36
    Penalty to Peyton Krebs 2 minutes for Misconduct
  139. P1 04:36
    Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Misconduct
  140. P1 03:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  141. P1 02:07
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
  142. P1 01:11
    Giveaway by Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  143. P1 01:09
    Giveaway by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in defensive zone
  144. P1 00:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Quinn
  145. P1 00:20
    SHOT
    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
  146. P1 00:18
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Mattias Samuelsson in offensive zone
  147. P1 00:00
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Sabres
28Shots on Goal42
50% Faceoff Win % 50%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 7/4
57Penalty Infraction Mins45
40Hits27
6 Shots Blocked 15
11Giveaways17
LightningTB
SabresBUF
28Shots on Goal42
50% Faceoff Win % 50%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 7/4
57Penalty Infraction Mins45
40Hits27
6 Shots Blocked 15
11Giveaways17

Lightning vs. Sabres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Sabres
  • Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026
  • Time: 6:00 PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -115, Sabres +100

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 51%
  • Sabres: 49%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 51%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 49%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Sabres in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Sabres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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