Philadelphia vs. Toronto Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Philadelphia vs. Toronto MLS match on April 22, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
Philadelphia
3
:
3
BMO Field
Toronto
BMO Field
TorontoTOR
Score Summary
PhiladelphiaPHI
J. Sargent (56')
Soccer ball icon
K. Franklin (64')
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L. Gavran (90')
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M. Iloski (45')
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D. Jean Jacques (53')
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N. Harriel (89')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toronto
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Philadelphia
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    A. Bedoya (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by L. Gavran, assisted by A. Coello
    3-3
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  4. 89'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by N. Harriel, assisted by A. Bedoya
    3-2
  5. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: M. Jakupovic replaces J. Lukic
  6. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: C. Sullivan replaces M. Iloski
  7. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: E. Alladoh replaces B. Damiani
  8. 78'
    Yellow Card
    O. Makhanya (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  9. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: L. Stefanovic replaces W. Zimmerman
  10. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: A. Bedoya replaces I. Vassilev
  11. 65'
    Yellow Card
    D. Jean Jacques (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  12. 64'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by K. Franklin, assisted by J. Cifuentes
    2-2
  13. 61'
    Yellow Card
    J. Sery Larsen (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  14. 56'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toronto FC by J. Sargent, assisted by D. Salloi
    2-1
  15. 54'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toronto FC: M. Henry replaces D. Kerr
  16. 53'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by D. Jean Jacques
    2-0
  17. 49'
    Yellow Card
    R. Laryea (Toronto FC) cautioned
  18. 46'
    Yellow Card
    A. Coello (Toronto FC) cautioned
  19. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by M. Iloski, assisted by J. Lukic
    1-0
  20. 16'
    Yellow Card
    D. Salloi (Toronto FC) cautioned
  21. 7'
    Yellow Card
    J. Osorio (Toronto FC) cautioned

Philadelphia vs. Toronto: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Philadelphia vs. Toronto
  • Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: BMO Field

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Philadelphia +155, Toronto +200, draw +240
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-105/-112)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Philadelphia: 36.7%
  • Toronto: 37.2%
  • Draw: 26.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Philadelphia 1-1 Toronto (12.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Philadelphia vs. Toronto? Prediction & correct score

Toronto is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 37.2%.

The most likely correct score is Philadelphia 1-1 Toronto.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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