Minnesota vs. Sporting KC Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Minnesota vs. Sporting KC MLS match on July 22, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
Minnesota
1
2
Sporting KC
Sporting KCSKC
Score Summary
MinnesotaMIN
D. Joveljic (28')
Soccer ball icon
M. Garcia (54')
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D. Padelford (75')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Sporting KC
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Minnesota
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Minnesota United: J. Gressel replaces T. Chancalay
  2. 84'
    Yellow Card
    B. Hlongwane (Minnesota United) cautioned
  3. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Reid replaces E. Karic
  4. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Bartlett replaces Z. Bassong
  5. 75'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Minnesota United by D. Padelford, assisted by J. Pereyra
    1-2
  6. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Minnesota United: J. Diaz replaces D. Padelford
  7. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Minnesota United: M. Gonzalez replaces O. Gene
  8. 74'
    Yellow Card
    D. Joveljic (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  9. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: K. Agyabeng replaces M. Garcia
  10. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Afrifa replaces Capita
  11. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Minnesota United: M. Dieng replaces K. Yeboah
  12. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Minnesota United: B. Hlongwane replaces K. Duncan
  13. 56'
    Yellow Card
    J. Pereyra (Minnesota United) cautioned
  14. 54'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by M. Garcia, assisted by J. Davis
    0-2
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    Capita (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
  16. 28'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by D. Joveljic, assisted by Capita
    0-1
  17. 21'
    Yellow Card
    K. Duncan (Minnesota United) cautioned

Minnesota vs. Sporting KC: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Minnesota vs. Sporting KC
  • Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Minnesota +125, Sporting KC +240, draw +290
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-175/+135)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Minnesota: 43.2%
  • Sporting KC: 33.0%
  • Draw: 23.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Minnesota 1-1 Sporting KC (10.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Minnesota vs. Sporting KC? Prediction & correct score

Minnesota is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 43.2%.

The most likely correct score is Minnesota 1-1 Sporting KC.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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