Marlins vs. Padres: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Marlins vs. Padres MLB game on Saturday, September 19, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Marlins
Eury Pérez 7-11, 3.99 ERA
6
7
Petco Park
Padres
Casey Mize 6-9, 3.69 ERA
Petco Park
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 RHE
Marlins
3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 10 0
Padres
1 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 7 11 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Marlins
    0%
  • Padres
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Ethan Salas singles to shallow center field. Jake Cronenworth scores.
Quick Box Score
Marlins Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 O. Lopez SS4112111.2501.500
2 H. Hernández LF4010022.2500.750
3 B. Navarreto C0000000.0000.000
4 J. Sanoja 3B4000011.0000.200
5 J. Serna 2B0000000.0000.000
6 J. Marsee CF4230010.7501.550
7 A. Ramírez DH5121003.4001.000
8 D. De Los Santos 1B2000002.0000.000
9 E. Ruiz RF3011011.3330.833
Padres Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 F. Tatis RF4111101.2501.400
2 J. Bowen LF0000000.0000.000
3 M. Machado 3B5120001.4000.800
4 T. France 1B5131000.6001.400
5 J. Merrill CF4010013.2500.650
6 L. Campusano DH3100021.0000.400
7 J. Cronenworth 2B4111011.2500.650
8 S. Song SS1000001.0000.000
9 E. Salas PH10110001.0002.000

Marlins vs. Padres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Saturday

  • Teams: Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
  • Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
  • Time: 8:40PM ET
  • Venue: Petco Park

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Marlins (+1.5, -156), Padres (-1.5, +153)
  • Moneyline: Marlins +138, Padres -144
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5 runs (+100/-104)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Marlins: 41.8%
  • Padres: 58.2%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Marlins a win probability of 41.8%, while the Padres have a win probability of 58.2%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Padres are more likely to beat the Marlins in the MLB game at Petco Park on Saturday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Marlins vs. Padres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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