Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox MLB game on Monday, August 17, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
D-Backs
Mitch Bratt 1-1, 3.74 ERA
1
11
Fenway Park
Red Sox
Alec Gamboa 0-0, 1.59 ERA
Fenway Park
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
D-Backs
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 2
Red Sox
0 2 1 1 3 2 2 0 X 11 16 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • D-Backs
    0%
  • Red Sox
    100%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Tim Tawa grounds out to shallow infield, Caleb Durbin to Nick Sogard.
Quick Box Score
D-Backs Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 I. Vargas P4100000.0000.000
2 J. Barrosa RF1000001.0000.000
3 G. Moreno C4010000.2500.500
4 J. McCann 1B1000001.0000.000
5 J. Lawlar 2B4000003.0000.000
6 T. Tawa 3B4020000.5001.250
7 J. Fernandez SS3010001.3330.666
8 L. Nootbaar LF3000000.0000.000
9 R. Waldschmidt CF2000001.0000.333
Red Sox Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 N. Sogard 1B5121000.4001.200
2 C. Rafaela CF5231000.6001.800
3 W. Abreu RF4122010.5001.100
4 A. Seigler 2B0000000.0000.000
5 A. Rutschman C5121000.4001.000
6 C. Durbin 3B4231010.7501.550
7 A. Monasterio SS4001000.0000.000
8 M. Gasper DH5112100.2001.000
9 E. White LF4111000.2500.500

Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Monday

  • Teams: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox
  • Date: Monday, August 17, 2026
  • Time: 7:10PM ET
  • Venue: Fenway Park

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Diamondbacks (+1.5, -160), Red Sox (-1.5, +156)
  • Moneyline: Diamondbacks +127, Red Sox -127
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5 runs (-113/+111)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Diamondbacks: 48.1%
  • Red Sox: 51.9%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Diamondbacks a win probability of 48.1%, while the Red Sox have a win probability of 51.9%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Red Sox are more likely to beat the Diamondbacks in the MLB game at Fenway Park on Monday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.