Tigres UANL vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Tigres UANL vs. Toluca Liga MX match on December 14, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Tigres UANL
1
3
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
Tigres UANLUANL
Helinho (40')
Soccer ball icon
Paulinho (52')
Soccer ball icon
F. Gorriaran (14')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Tigres UANL
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 117'
    Yellow Card
    D. Barbosa (Toluca) cautioned
  2. 113'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Arce replaces M. Ruiz
  3. 112'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: O. Virgen replaces E. del Villar
  4. 105'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: U. Antuna replaces D. Lainez
  5. 105'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: J. Vigon replaces Romulo
  6. 96'
    Yellow Card
    F. Gorriaran (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  7. 91'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Bruno Mendez replaces N. Castro
  8. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: O. Herrera replaces J. Brunetta
  9. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: D. Barbosa replaces Paulinho
  10. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: A. Vega replaces J. Angulo
  11. 78'
    Yellow Card
    J. Brunetta (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  12. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. P. Dominguez Chonteco replaces Helinho
  13. 69'
    Yellow Card
    Paulinho (Toluca) cautioned
  14. 64'
    Yellow Card
    A. Correa (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  15. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: N. Ibanez replaces A. Gignac
  16. 52'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by Helinho
    1-2
  17. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: J. Aquino replaces M. Farfan
  18. 45'
    Yellow Card
    S. Simon (Toluca) cautioned
  19. 40'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho, assisted by F. Romero
    1-1
  20. 14'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Tigres UANL by F. Gorriaran, assisted by A. Gignac
    1-0
  21. 12'
    Yellow Card
    F. Pereira (Toluca) cautioned

Tigres UANL vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Tigres UANL vs. Toluca
  • Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Tigres UANL +480, Toluca -175, draw +340
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-138/+112)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Tigres UANL: 21.8%
  • Toluca: 55.3%
  • Draw: 22.9%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Tigres UANL 1-1 Toluca (10.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Tigres UANL vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 55.3%.

The most likely correct score is Tigres UANL 1-1 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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