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Alaves vs. Villareal Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Alaves vs. Villareal at the La Liga on March 13, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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LA LIGA
Villareal
1
:
1
Mar 13, 8PM Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Mar 13, 8PM Estadio Mendizorrotza
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
AlavesALA
Score Summary
VillarealVIL
R. Marin (o.g.) (40')
Soccer ball icon
N. Pepe (90')
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Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
ALA
0.0%
Draw
100.0%
VIL
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Yellow Card
A. Sivera (Alaves) cautioned
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: A. Rebbach replaces T. Martinez
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: C. Ballestero replaces N. Tenaglia
90'
Yellow Card
Marcelino (Villarreal) cautioned
90'
Yellow Card
A. Blanco (Alaves) cautioned
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Villarreal by N. Pepe, assisted by S. Comesana
1-1
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: T. Oluwaseyi replaces G. Mikautadze
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: A. Freeman replaces S. Mourino
81'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: V. Koski replaces Yusi
75'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: J. Guridi replaces C. Alena
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: T. Partey replaces P. Gueye
60'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: G. Moreno replaces T. Buchanan
59'
Yellow Card
S. Cardona (Villarreal) cautioned
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: A. Moleiro replaces S. Cardona
50'
Yellow Card
Yusi (Alaves) cautioned
40'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Alaves by R. Marin (o.g.)
0-1
36'
Yellow Card
L. Boye (Alaves) cautioned

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Alaves vs. Villareal: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Alaves vs. Villareal prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all La Liga matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Alaves vs. Villareal
  • Date: Friday, March 13, 2026
  • Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza
  • Tournament: La Liga

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Alaves +255, Villareal +115, draw +240
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-105/-110)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Alaves: 30.9%
  • Villareal: 43.2%
  • Draw: 25.9%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Alaves 1-1 Villareal, with a probability of 12%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Alaves is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 30.9% probability, while Villareal sits at 43.2%, with the draw at 25.9%.

For full access to La Liga predictions, probabilities, and tools such as La Liga best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Alaves vs. Villareal prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the La Liga and the latest La Liga news.

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