Senegal vs. Iraq prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]

Senegal will square off with Iraq in Group I of the World Cup 2026 at BMO Field on Friday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model projects Senegal as the most likely winner of the Senegal vs. Iraq game.

Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Senegal vs. Iraq prediction: Who will win?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Senegal and Iraq, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model suggests a 75.7% chance of Senegal winning, an 8.6% chance for Iraq, and a 15.6% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 3.5-goal over/under has a 62.3% chance of staying under, with a 54.7% chance of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Senegal holds a 45.8% probability to win without conceding, with Iraq given a 4.4% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is Senegal to win or draw at 91.4%.

Iraq vs. Senegal odds

We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Senegal	Iraq	Draw
-475	+1200	+600

Total Goals

Over 3.5	Under 3.5
+120	-144

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Senegal vs. Iraq picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Iraq @ +600 via BetMGM
• Total Goals: Under 3.5 @ -144 via FanDuel
• Win to Nil: Iraq @ +1650 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: Iraq or Draw @ +360 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: Yes @ +120 via BetMGM

According to our best World Cup 2026 bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 3.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Senegal vs. Iraq: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Senegal win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Senegal 2-0 Iraq	13.1%
Senegal 1-0 Iraq	10.8%
Senegal 3-0 Iraq	10.6%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 45.3% chance of both Senegal and Iraq finding the net and a 54.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Senegal vs. Iraq player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Friday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Senegal-Iraq:

Senegal

• Ismaila Sarr: 38.7% probability
• Sadio Mane: 36.0% probability
• Ibrahim Mbaye: 28.2% probability
• Habib Diarra: 25.0% probability
• Lamine Camara: 16.6% probability

Iraq

• Ali Hamadi: 14.1% probability
• Ali Jasim: 7.7% probability
• Ahmed Qasem: 7.5% probability
• Ibrahim Bayesh: 7.2% probability
• Zidane Iqbal: 5.5% probability

Senegal vs. Iraq game-day updates and essential details

Friday's soccer World Cup game between Senegal and Iraq at BMO Field is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Senegal vs. Iraq
• Date: Friday, June 26, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: BMO Field

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, Senegal has a 75.7% win probability on Friday, Iraq has an 8.6% win probability, and there is a 15.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.