Mercury vs. Wings prediction sees Paige Bueckers projected to score 17 points in Saturday's WNBA game [9/19/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Wings, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Wings an 81.3% chance of defeating the Mercury. According to our model, the Mercury (+9.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 172.5 points has a 52.5% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mercury +9.5 (+100) / Wings -9.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Mercury +376, Wings -375
• Total: Over/Under 172.5 (+104/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mercury +9.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Wings @ -375 via BetMGM
• Total: Over 172.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 172.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

WNBA player props are a great way to wager on the Phoenix vs. Dallas matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at College Park Center.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists, while Paige Bueckers is projected to have 17 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists for the Wings.

For early game action, the data identifies Kahleah Copper as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	3	2	2	30
Alyssa Thomas	13	7	8	0	39
Shay Ciezki	11	2	2	1	20
Natasha Mack	8	6	1	0	23
Noemie Brochant	8	3	2	1	18

Wings player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Wings:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Paige Bueckers	17	4	6	2	34
A. Ogunbowale	13	3	3	2	25
Jessica Shepard	11	9	5	0	32
Maddy Siegrist	8	4	1	1	18
Aziaha James	8	3	1	1	18

Game info & tip-off details

Saturday's matchup between the Wings and Mercury at College Park Center is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: College Park Center

Conclusion

We predict the Wings, with an 81.3% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.