Mercury vs. Sun prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [8/7/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun predictions for WNBA Friday.
The Connecticut Sun will face the favored Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Friday, commencing at 7:30 PM ET.
Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner in this Mercury vs. Sun prediction.
The Sun, with stars like Leila Lacan, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Brittney Griner, will face off against the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, Kelsey Plum and Alyssa Thomas.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Mercury a 74.8% chance of beating the Sun.
According to our model, the Mercury (-6.5) have a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 173.5 points has a 52.1% chance of going over,.
Mercury vs. Sun odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Mercury -6.5 @ +106 via Novig
- Moneyline: Mercury @ -233 via Novig
- Total: Over 173.5 @ +100 via Polymarket
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Sun picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Mercury -6.5 @ +106 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Mercury @ -233 via Novig
- Total: Over 173.5 @ +100 via Polymarket According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Sun player props
Looking for Phoenix vs. Connecticut WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 21 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Leila Lacan is projected to have 12 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists for the Sun.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kelsey Plum striking first with a 13.5% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 21 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 33 |
| Kelsey Plum | 16 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 31 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 45 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
Sun prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leila Lacan | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 29 |
| Brittney Griner | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 |
| Diamond Miller | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Kennedy Burke | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
Mercury vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Sun and Mercury at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 74.8% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
