Mercury vs. Sun prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [8/7/2026]

The Connecticut Sun will take on the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Friday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner in this Mercury vs. Sun prediction.

The Sun, led by Leila Lacan, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Brittney Griner, are set to take on the Mercury, featuring Kahleah Copper, Kelsey Plum and Alyssa Thomas.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 70.7% chance of beating the Sun.

According to our model, the Mercury (-5.5) have a 52.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 173.5 points has a 52.1% chance of going over,.

Mercury vs. Sun odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mercury -5.5 @ -104 via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Mercury @ -200 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 173.5 @ -104 via Polymarket

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Sun picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mercury -5.5 @ -104 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Mercury @ -200 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 173.5 @ -104 via Polymarket According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Sun player props

WNBA player props are a great way to wager on the Phoenix vs. Connecticut game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 21 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Leila Lacan is projected to have 12 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists for the Sun.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kelsey Plum striking first with a 13.5% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	21	4	3	2	33
Kelsey Plum	16	3	5	2	30
Alyssa Thomas	15	8	9	0	45
DeWanna Bonner	11	7	3	1	29
Valeriane Ayayi	7	3	1	1	15

Sun prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Leila Lacan	12	3	4	1	28
O. Nelson-Ododa	12	7	2	0	29
Brittney Griner	11	5	2	0	25
Diamond Miller	10	3	2	2	21
Kennedy Burke	9	4	2	2	21

Mercury vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details

Friday's matchup between the Sun and Mercury at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun
• Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 70.7% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.