Mercury vs. Sky prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Monday's WNBA game [8/3/2026]

The Chicago Sky will face the Phoenix Mercury, in what is expected to be a close WNBA game, at Wintrust Arena on Monday, beginning at 9:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model gives the Mercury a slight edge with a 50.5% win probability over the Sky.

The Sky, who have star players like Sydney Taylor, Kamilla Cardoso and Natasha Cloud, will face off against the Mercury, featuring Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Kelsey Plum.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's Mercury vs. Sky matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Sky prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Sky, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Mercury a 50.5% chance of beating the Sky.

According to our model, the Sky (+1.5) have a 55.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 68.6% chance of staying under,.

Mercury vs. Sky odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Sky
Spread	-1.5 (-106)	+1.5 (+104)
Moneyline	-117	+117
Total	o178.5 (-117)	u178.5 (+113)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Sky picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sky +1.5	+104
Moneyline	Sky	+117
Total	Under 178.5	+113

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Sky player props

WNBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on Monday's Mercury vs. Sky game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Wintrust Arena.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 22 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Sydney Taylor is projected to have 22 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sky.

When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 16.9% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	22	4	2	2	33
Alyssa Thomas	16	9	9	0	47
Kelsey Plum	12	2	3	1	21
DeWanna Bonner	11	6	1	1	27
Valeriane Ayayi	8	4	2	1	18

Sky prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sky:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Sydney Taylor	22	2	2	3	33
Kamilla Cardoso	13	8	3	0	32
Natasha Cloud	12	4	5	2	28
D. Carrington	9	4	1	1	19
Aicha Coulibaly	9	5	1	0	20

Mercury vs. Sky game-day updates and essential details

Monday's action between the Sky and Mercury at Wintrust Arena is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky
• Date: Monday, August 3, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Wintrust Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 50.5% win probability, will likely beat the Sky in Monday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.