Mercury vs. Dream prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA game [8/5/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
WNBA action continues on Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET as the Phoenix Mercury square off with the Atlanta Dream at Gateway Center Arena.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Dream as the most likely winner in this Mercury vs. Dream prediction.
The Dream, who have the likes of Allisha Gray, Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard, are set to take on the Mercury, who feature Kahleah Copper, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Dream prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Dream a 66.8% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mercury (+5.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 183.5-point over/under has a 54.2% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Dream odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Dream |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5.5 (+108) | -5.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +205 | -203 |
| Total | o183.5 (+100) | u183.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Dream picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury +5.5 | +108 |
| Moneyline | Mercury | +205 |
| Total | Under 183.5 | -104 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +5.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Dream player props
WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on the Mercury vs. Dream game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gateway Center Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Allisha Gray as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 19 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 32 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 44 |
| Kelsey Plum | 14 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
Dream prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allisha Gray | 19 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Angel Reese | 17 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 43 |
| Rhyne Howard | 17 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 36 |
| Jordin Canada | 12 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 36 |
| Brionna Jones | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
Mercury vs. Dream game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Dream and Mercury at Gateway Center Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream
- Date: Wednesday, August 5, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Dream, with a 66.8% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
