Mercury vs. Dream prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA game [8/5/2026]

The Atlanta Dream will take on the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Gateway Center Arena on Wednesday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Dream as the most likely winner in this Mercury vs. Dream prediction.

The Dream, powered by Allisha Gray, Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard, will face off against the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Dream prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Dream, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dream a 70.0% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Mercury (+6.5) have a 54.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 182.5 points has a 53.3% chance of staying under,.

Mercury vs. Dream odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Dream
Spread	+6.5 (+104)	-6.5 (-108)
Moneyline	+212	-223
Total	o182.5 (-104)	u182.5 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Dream picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury +6.5	+104
Moneyline	Dream	-223
Total	Under 182.5	+100

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Dream player props

WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Wednesday's Phoenix vs. Atlanta matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gateway Center Arena.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.

For early game action, the data identifies Allisha Gray as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	4	3	2	32
DeWanna Bonner	15	7	2	1	32
Alyssa Thomas	15	7	9	0	43
Kelsey Plum	14	2	5	2	27
Valeriane Ayayi	8	4	1	1	17

Dream prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	19	4	3	2	32
Angel Reese	17	12	3	0	43
Rhyne Howard	17	4	4	3	36
Jordin Canada	11	4	8	1	36
Brionna Jones	10	6	2	0	23

Mercury vs. Dream game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's matchup between the Dream and Mercury at Gateway Center Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream
• Date: Wednesday, August 5, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Gateway Center Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 70.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.