Sparks vs. Aces prediction favors Las Vegas to win Tuesday's WNBA game [9/22/2026]

The Las Vegas Aces and Los Angeles Sparks will lock horns in the WNBA Playoffs at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Tuesday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner in this Sparks vs. Aces prediction.

The Aces, with star players like A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, will face off against the Sparks, who feature Nneka Ogwumike, Rae Burrell and Monique Akoa-Makani.

This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sparks vs. Aces prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA matchup between the Sparks and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Aces a 92.0% chance of beating the Sparks. According to our model, the Sparks (+15.5) have a 53.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 179.5 points has a 56.5% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Sparks +15.5 (+109) / Aces -15.5 (-137)
• Moneyline: Sparks +1150, Aces -1236
• Total: Over/Under 179.5 (-108/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sparks +15.5 @ 48¢ via Kalshi
• Moneyline: Sparks @ 8¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Under 179.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 179.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the Los Angeles vs. Las Vegas matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Nneka Ogwumike is expected to lead the Sparks with 14 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 24 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists for the Aces.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to A'ja Wilson striking first with a 17.1% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sparks player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Nneka Ogwumike	14	8	3	1	33
Rae Burrell	12	3	2	1	23
M. Akoa-Makani	8	3	2	1	18
Ariel Atkins	7	3	2	1	19
Emma Cannon	7	4	0	1	14

Aces player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	24	9	5	1	50
Jackie Young	19	4	6	3	39
Chelsea Gray	10	3	6	2	27
Cheyenne Parker	9	7	1	1	24
Mai Yamamoto	7	2	2	2	17

Game info & tip-off details

Tuesday's matchup between the Aces and Sparks at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 92.0% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.