Sun vs. Mystics prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [9/22/2026]

The Washington Mystics will face the Connecticut Sun in WNBA action at CareFirst Arena on Tuesday, commencing at 7:30 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Mystics as the most likely winner in this Sun vs. Mystics prediction.

The Mystics, who have the likes of Shakira Austin, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, will face off against the Sun, featuring Aaliyah Edwards, Leila Lacan and Diamond Miller.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sun vs. Mystics prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Sun and Mystics, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mystics a 90.6% chance of beating the Sun. According to our model, the Sun (+17.5) have a 61.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 160.5 points has a 63.5% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Sun +17.5 (+102) / Mystics -17.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Sun +1241, Mystics -1329
• Total: Over/Under 160.5 (-106/+101)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sun +17.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Sun @ 7¢ via Kalshi
• Total: Over 160.5 @ -106 via FanDuel

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 160.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Connecticut vs. Washington game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at CareFirst Arena.

Aaliyah Edwards is expected to lead the Sun with 12 points, 6 rebounds and 1 assists, while Shakira Austin is projected to have 15 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mystics.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Aaliyah Edwards striking first with a 14.9% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Aaliyah Edwards	12	6	1	1	26
Leila Lacan	11	2	5	1	27
Diamond Miller	9	3	2	2	19
C. Leger-Walker	8	3	5	3	23
Nell Angloma	8	4	2	1	20

Mystics player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mystics:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Shakira Austin	15	8	2	0	34
Sonia Citron	14	3	6	2	34
Kiki Iriafen	14	9	1	0	31
Georgia Amoore	11	2	4	3	22
Lauren Betts	8	6	1	0	22

Game info & tip-off details

Tuesday's matchup between the Mystics and Sun at CareFirst Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics
• Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: CareFirst Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Mystics, with a 90.6% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.