Sun vs. Mystics prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [9/22/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Sun and Mystics, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mystics an 89.8% chance of beating the Sun. According to our model, the Sun (+16.5) have a 60.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 160.5-point over/under has a 59.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Sun +16.5 (+108) / Mystics -16.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Sun +1150, Mystics -1329
• Total: Over/Under 160.5 (+102/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sun +16.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Sun @ 8¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 160.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +16.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

Betting on Connecticut vs. Washington WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at CareFirst Arena.

Aaliyah Edwards is expected to lead the Sun with 12 points, 6 rebounds and 1 assists, while Shakira Austin is projected to have 15 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mystics.

For early game action, the data identifies Aaliyah Edwards as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Aaliyah Edwards	12	6	1	1	26
Leila Lacan	11	2	4	1	26
Diamond Miller	9	3	2	2	18
C. Leger-Walker	8	3	4	3	23
Nell Angloma	7	4	2	1	19

Mystics player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mystics:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Shakira Austin	15	8	2	0	34
Sonia Citron	14	3	6	2	34
Kiki Iriafen	14	9	1	0	31
Georgia Amoore	11	2	4	3	22
Lauren Betts	8	6	1	0	22

Game info & tip-off details

Tuesday's matchup between the Mystics and Sun at CareFirst Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics
• Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: CareFirst Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Mystics, with an 89.8% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.