Sun vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [7/17/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury and Connecticut Sun are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Friday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, led by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Sun, whose lineup includes Leila Lacan, Brittney Griner and Diamond Miller.

This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sun vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Sun and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 68.4% chance of beating the Sun.

According to our model, the Mercury (-3.5) have a 53.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 163.5 points has a 51.3% chance of staying under,.

Sun vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sun	Mercury
Spread	+3.5 (-102)	-3.5 (-104)
Moneyline	+156	-160
Total	o163.5 (+104)	u163.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sun vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury -3.5	-104
Moneyline	Mercury	-160
Total	Over 163.5	+104

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sun vs. Mercury player props

Looking for Sun vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Leila Lacan is expected to lead the Sun with 13 points, 2 rebounds and 5 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 16% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Leila Lacan	13	2	5	1	30
Brittney Griner	13	6	2	0	28
Diamond Miller	11	3	2	1	21
O. Nelson-Ododa	9	5	2	0	23
Kennedy Burke	9	3	2	1	20

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	4	2	2	30
Alyssa Thomas	16	8	9	0	45
DeWanna Bonner	10	5	1	1	24
Valeriane Ayayi	10	4	2	1	21
Alexa Held	8	2	2	1	16

Sun vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Friday's matchup between the Mercury and Sun at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Friday, July 17, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 68.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.