Rafael Jodar vs. Daniil Medvedev prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's Jodar-Medvedev men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Medvedev a 63% chance of defeating Jodar at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Daniil Medvedev -196, Rafael Jodar +175
• First Set: Jodar +137, Medvedev -175

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Jodar @ +175 via DraftKings
• First Set: Medvedev @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Rafael Jodar to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 7:00 AM ET.

• Who: Rafael Jodar vs. Daniil Medvedev
• Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat Rafael Jodar at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.