Jaime Faria vs. Hugo Gaston prediction, odds, picks for ATP Hangzhou Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's Faria-Gaston men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Faria a 64% chance of winning against Gaston at the ATP Hangzhou Open tournament. Additionally, Faria has a 61% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Gaston (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Hugo Gaston +175, Jaime Faria -197
• First Set: Faria -189, Gaston +150

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Gaston @ +175 via DraftKings
• First Set: Gaston @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Hugo Gaston to win.

Although Gaston is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Hangzhou Open match between Jaime Faria and Hugo Gaston is scheduled to begin on Friday at 7:30 AM ET.

• Who: Jaime Faria vs. Hugo Gaston
• Date: Friday, September 25, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:30 AM ET/4:30AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Hangzhou, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Jaime Faria, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat Hugo Gaston at the ATP Hangzhou Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.