Carlos Alcaraz vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's Alcaraz-Shapovalov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Alcaraz an 85% chance of winning against Shapovalov at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Alcaraz has an 80% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shapovalov (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 20.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov +720, Carlos Alcaraz -909
• First Set: Alcaraz -625, Shapovalov +400

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Shapovalov @ +720 via DraftKings
• First Set: Shapovalov @ +105 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Denis Shapovalov to win.

Although Shapovalov is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 12:00 AM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Denis Shapovalov
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat Denis Shapovalov at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.