Daniil Medvedev vs. Jan-Lennard Struff prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's Medvedev-Struff men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Medvedev an 82% chance of beating Struff at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 78% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Jan-Lennard Struff +490, Daniil Medvedev -649
• First Set: Medvedev -400, Struff +300

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Struff @ +490 via DraftKings
• First Set: Struff @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Jan-Lennard Struff is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 5:10 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Approx. Time: 5:10 AM ET/2:10AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat Jan-Lennard Struff at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.