Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Ben Shelton will face Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Tuesday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner in this Shelton vs. Alcaraz prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Shelton vs. Alcaraz prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's Shelton-Alcaraz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Alcaraz a 77% chance of defeating Shelton in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 69% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 61% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Carlos Alcaraz -400, Ben Shelton +317
• First Set: Shelton +175, Alcaraz -227

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Shelton @ +317 via DraftKings
• First Set: Alcaraz @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Ben Shelton to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to start on Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET.

• Who: Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz
• Date: Tuesday, September 8, 2026
• Approx. Time: 9:45 PM ET/6:45PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat Ben Shelton at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.