Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Shelton-Alcaraz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Alcaraz a 76% chance of defeating Shelton in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 68% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Carlos Alcaraz -340, Ben Shelton +300
• First Set: Shelton +175, Alcaraz -227

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Shelton @ +300 via DraftKings
• First Set: Alcaraz @ -128 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Ben Shelton to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to begin on Tuesday at 11:30 AM ET.

• Who: Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz
• Date: Tuesday, September 8, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:30 AM ET/8:30AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat Ben Shelton at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.