Alex de Minaur vs. Hubert Hurkacz prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's de Minaur-Hurkacz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives de Minaur a 58% chance of defeating Hurkacz at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, de Minaur has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show de Minaur (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 25.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Hubert Hurkacz +124, Alex de Minaur -139
• First Set: de Minaur -139, Hurkacz +110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: de Minaur @ -139 via DraftKings
• First Set: Hurkacz @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alex de Minaur to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz is scheduled to begin on Monday at 3:00 AM ET.

• Who: Alex de Minaur vs. Hubert Hurkacz
• Date: Monday, October 5, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:00 AM ET/12:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Alex de Minaur, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Hubert Hurkacz at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.