Jelena Ostapenko vs. Elise Mertens prediction, odds, picks for WTA China Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's Ostapenko-Mertens women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Mertens a 59% chance of winning against Ostapenko at the WTA China Open tournament. Additionally, Mertens has a 58% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the oddsmakers have got it right with the -2.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the **over/under of 21.5 games also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Elise Mertens -172, Jelena Ostapenko +150
• First Set: Ostapenko +137, Mertens -175

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Ostapenko @ +150 via DraftKings
• First Set: Mertens @ -110 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Jelena Ostapenko to win.

Although Ostapenko is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The WTA China Open match between Jelena Ostapenko and Elise Mertens is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 11:00 PM ET.

• Who: Jelena Ostapenko vs. Elise Mertens
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:00 PM ET/8:00PM PT
• Tournament: WTA Beijing, China Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Elise Mertens, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat Jelena Ostapenko at the WTA China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.