Oilers vs. Penguins Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Oilers vs. Penguins NHL game on December 16, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Oilers
6
4
PPG Paints Arena
Penguins
PPG Paints Arena
TEAM123T
Oilers
2 2 2 6
Penguins
1 1 2 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Oilers
    100%
  • Penguins
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Oilers
2 2 2 6
Penguins
1 1 2 4
P3 19:46 Goal scored by Danton Heinen assisted by Thomas Novak
P3 19:22 Danton Heinen shot blocked by Ty Emberson
P3 18:40 Shot missed by Connor McDavid
P3 17:37 Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 17:28 Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
P3 17:21 Shot missed by Kevin Hayes
P3 17:21 Shot on goal by Kevin Hayes saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 16:52 Goal scored by Bryan Rust assisted by Anthony Mantha and Erik Karlsson
P3 16:42 Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Ty Emberson
P3 16:33 Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 16:11 Shot missed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
P3 16:04 Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 15:03 Shot missed by Parker Wotherspoon
P3 13:56 Trent Frederic shot blocked by Brett Kulak
P3 13:44 Ty Emberson shot blocked by Noel Acciari
P3 13:21 Shot missed by Connor McDavid
P3 13:17 Ty Emberson shot blocked by Jack St. Ivany
P3 13:12 Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 12:13 Power play - Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Tristan Jarry
P3 11:54 Power play - Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Tristan Jarry
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  3. P3 19:55
    Alec Regula credited with hit on Thomas Novak in defensive zone
  4. P3 19:46
    Kevin Hayes won faceoff against Matt Savoie in neutral zone
  5. P3 19:46
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Danton Heinen assisted by Thomas Novak
    6-4
  6. P3 19:24
    Trent Frederic won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in defensive zone
  7. P3 19:24
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  8. P3 19:22
    SHOT
    Danton Heinen shot blocked by Ty Emberson
  9. P3 18:41
    Trent Frederic won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  10. P3 18:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McDavid
  11. P3 17:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Tristan Jarry
  12. P3 17:28
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
  13. P3 17:23
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
  14. P3 17:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  15. P3 17:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kevin Hayes
  16. P3 17:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kevin Hayes saved by Tristan Jarry
  17. P3 16:52
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Bryan Rust assisted by Anthony Mantha and Erik Karlsson
    5-3
  18. P3 16:51
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  19. P3 16:42
    SHOT
    Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Ty Emberson
  20. P3 16:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Tristan Jarry
  21. P3 16:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  22. P3 16:06
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
  23. P3 16:06
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  24. P3 16:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Stuart Skinner
  25. P3 15:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Parker Wotherspoon
  26. P3 13:56
    SHOT
    Trent Frederic shot blocked by Brett Kulak
  27. P3 13:44
    SHOT
    Ty Emberson shot blocked by Noel Acciari
  28. P3 13:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McDavid
  29. P3 13:17
    SHOT
    Ty Emberson shot blocked by Jack St. Ivany
  30. P3 13:13
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Danton Heinen in offensive zone
  31. P3 13:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  32. P3 13:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Stuart Skinner
  33. P3 12:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Tristan Jarry
  34. P3 11:56
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Adam Henrique in offensive zone
  35. P3 11:56
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  36. P3 11:54
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Tristan Jarry
  37. P3 11:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
  38. P3 09:34
    Power play - Rickard Rakell credited with hit on Darnell Nurse in offensive zone
  39. P3 08:59
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Vasily Podkolzin in neutral zone
  40. P3 08:59
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  41. P3 08:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Evan Bouchard
  42. P3 08:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
  43. P3 08:23
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Sidney Crosby
  44. P3 08:14
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Adam Henrique in offensive zone
  45. P3 08:14
    Penalty to Ty Emberson 2 minutes for Misconduct
  46. P3 07:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rutger McGroarty
  47. P3 07:42
    SHOT
    Kris Letang shot blocked by Ty Emberson
  48. P3 07:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Shea
  49. P3 07:33
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Connor McDavid in offensive zone
  50. P3 07:33
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  51. P3 07:31
    SHOT
    Jack St. Ivany shot blocked by Curtis Lazar
  52. P3 07:23
    SHOT
    Brett Kulak shot blocked by Alec Regula
  53. P3 06:47
    Curtis Lazar won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  54. P3 06:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Vasily Podkolzin
  55. P3 06:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bryan Rust
  56. P3 06:11
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  57. P3 06:11
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  58. P3 05:28
    Noel Acciari won faceoff against Adam Henrique in defensive zone
  59. P3 05:28
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  60. P3 05:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Quinn Hutson saved by Stuart Skinner
  61. P3 04:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kris Letang
  62. P3 04:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Danton Heinen
  63. P3 04:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Stuart Skinner
  64. P3 04:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Tristan Jarry
  65. P3 02:56
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm
  66. P3 02:47
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Matt Savoie in offensive zone
  67. P3 02:47
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  68. P3 02:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Tristan Jarry
  69. P3 02:17
    SHOT
    Andrew Mangiapane shot blocked by Jack St. Ivany
  70. P3 02:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
  71. P3 00:00
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Adam Henrique in neutral zone
  72. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  73. P2 20:00
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Kevin Hayes
  74. P2 19:02
    Power play - Giveaway by Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
  75. P2 18:14
    Shorthanded - Adam Henrique won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  76. P2 18:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Tristan Jarry
  77. P2 18:02
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
  78. P2 17:38
    Rickard Rakell credited with hit on Ty Emberson in offensive zone
  79. P2 17:19
    Curtis Lazar won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  80. P2 17:19
    Stoppage - Offside
  81. P2 16:54
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  82. P2 16:54
    Stoppage - Offside
  83. P2 16:38
    Takeaway by Zach Hyman in defensive zone
  84. P2 16:21
    Danton Heinen credited with hit on Mattias Ekholm in offensive zone
  85. P2 16:12
    Noel Acciari won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in neutral zone
  86. P2 16:12
    Stoppage - Offside
  87. P2 15:47
    Oilers won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  88. P2 15:46
    Shorthanded - Curtis Lazar won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  89. P2 15:46
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Curtis Lazar in offensive zone
  90. P2 15:46
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  91. P2 15:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Tristan Jarry
  92. P2 15:15
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Bryan Rust
  93. P2 14:31
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Tristan Jarry
  94. P2 14:12
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Tristan Jarry
  95. P2 14:02
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Adam Henrique in offensive zone
  96. P2 14:02
    Penalty to Darnell Nurse 2 minutes for Misconduct
  97. P2 13:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Tristan Jarry
  98. P2 13:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Tristan Jarry
  99. P2 12:49
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Danton Heinen in offensive zone
  100. P2 12:36
    SHOT
    Kris Letang shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
  101. P2 12:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Tristan Jarry
  102. P2 11:18
    Matt Savoie won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  103. P2 11:18
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  104. P2 11:01
    SHOT
    Brett Kulak shot blocked by Ty Emberson
  105. P2 10:58
    SHOT
    Justin Brazeau shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  106. P2 09:36
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  107. P2 09:34
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Evan Bouchard assisted by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
    4-2
  108. P2 09:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Stuart Skinner
  109. P2 08:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  110. P2 08:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
  111. P2 08:06
    Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  112. P2 08:06
    Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  113. P2 08:06
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  114. P2 08:06
    Penalty to Justin Brazeau 2 minutes for Cross Checking (Drawn by Mattias Ekholm)
  115. P2 07:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
  116. P2 07:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Andrew Mangiapane
  117. P2 06:24
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  118. P2 06:24
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Erik Karlsson assisted by Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell
    3-2
  119. P2 05:30
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Adam Henrique in offensive zone
  120. P2 05:30
    Penalty to Leon Draisaitl 2 minutes for Misconduct
  121. P2 05:30
    SHOT
    Oilers shot blocked by teammate
  122. P2 04:51
    SHOT
    Ryan Shea shot blocked by Alec Regula
  123. P2 04:49
    Danton Heinen won faceoff against Vasily Podkolzin in offensive zone
  124. P2 04:49
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  125. P2 04:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Tristan Jarry
  126. P2 04:35
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Noel Acciari in neutral zone
  127. P2 04:35
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Matt Savoie assisted by Alec Regula and Mattias Janmark
    3-1
  128. P2 04:32
    SHOT
    Penguins shot blocked by teammate
  129. P2 04:17
    Giveaway by Kevin Hayes in neutral zone
  130. P2 03:48
    SHOT
    Trent Frederic shot blocked by Brett Kulak
  131. P2 03:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Ekholm saved by Stuart Skinner
  132. P2 03:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ty Emberson saved by Stuart Skinner
  133. P2 03:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Stuart Skinner
  134. P2 02:26
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Rickard Rakell in neutral zone
  135. P2 02:26
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Injury
  136. P2 01:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Henrique saved by Stuart Skinner
  137. P2 01:02
    SHOT
    Rutger McGroarty shot blocked by Alec Regula
  138. P2 00:34
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Rutger McGroarty in neutral zone
  139. P2 00:34
    Stoppage - Offside
  140. P2 00:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Tristan Jarry
  141. P2 00:00
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
  142. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  143. P1 19:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Tristan Jarry
  144. P1 19:48
    SHOT
    Thomas Novak shot blocked by Vasily Podkolzin
  145. P1 19:15
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  146. P1 19:14
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Thomas Novak
    2-1
  147. P1 19:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Tristan Jarry
  148. P1 19:10
    Curtis Lazar won faceoff against Thomas Novak in defensive zone
  149. P1 19:10
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  150. P1 19:08
    SHOT
    Danton Heinen shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
  151. P1 18:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
  152. P1 17:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mattias Ekholm
  153. P1 17:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Ekholm saved by Stuart Skinner
  154. P1 17:29
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
  155. P1 17:29
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  156. P1 17:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bryan Rust
  157. P1 16:16
    SHOT
    Brett Kulak shot blocked by Alec Regula
  158. P1 15:51
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Curtis Lazar in offensive zone
  159. P1 15:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  160. P1 15:48
    SHOT
    Danton Heinen shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
  161. P1 14:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McDavid
  162. P1 14:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McDavid
  163. P1 14:01
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
  164. P1 14:01
    Stoppage - Icing
  165. P1 13:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
  166. P1 13:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Vasily Podkolzin
  167. P1 12:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Stuart Skinner
  168. P1 12:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Stuart Skinner
  169. P1 11:52
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  170. P1 11:50
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Connor McDavid assisted by Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard
    2-0
  171. P1 11:38
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Rickard Rakell in neutral zone
  172. P1 11:38
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Zach Hyman assisted by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
    1-0
  173. P1 11:26
    Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  174. P1 11:26
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  175. P1 11:24
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Stuart Skinner
  176. P1 11:03
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Stuart Skinner
  177. P1 10:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Leon Draisaitl
  178. P1 10:38
    Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  179. P1 10:38
    Penalty to Brett Kulak 2 minutes for Delay of Game
  180. P1 10:20
    Shorthanded - Noel Acciari won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
  181. P1 10:20
    Penalty to Bryan Rust 2 minutes for Misconduct
  182. P1 10:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Stuart Skinner
  183. P1 10:02
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Leon Draisaitl
  184. P1 09:38
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Stuart Skinner
  185. P1 09:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Leon Draisaitl
  186. P1 09:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McDavid
  187. P1 09:12
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  188. P1 08:12
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Tristan Jarry
  189. P1 08:08
    SHOT
    Power play - Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
  190. P1 07:55
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Justin Brazeau assisted by Ben Kindel
    0-1
  191. P1 07:51
    Shorthanded - Adam Henrique won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  192. P1 07:36
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Kris Letang
  193. P1 06:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Bryan Rust shot blocked by teammate
  194. P1 06:41
    Power play - Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Vasily Podkolzin in neutral zone
  195. P1 06:41
    Stoppage - Offside
  196. P1 06:14
    Shorthanded - Curtis Lazar won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  197. P1 06:14
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  198. P1 06:14
    Penalty to Mattias Ekholm 2 minutes for Misconduct
  199. P1 06:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Parker Wotherspoon saved by Tristan Jarry
  200. P1 05:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Stuart Skinner
  201. P1 05:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alec Regula
  202. P1 04:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darnell Nurse
  203. P1 04:23
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Justin Brazeau in defensive zone
  204. P1 04:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  205. P1 04:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kevin Hayes saved by Tristan Jarry
  206. P1 03:24
    SHOT
    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
  207. P1 03:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kevin Hayes saved by Tristan Jarry
  208. P1 02:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Tristan Jarry
  209. P1 02:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Novak
  210. P1 02:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oilers
  211. P1 02:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Novak
  212. P1 02:24
    SHOT
    Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Alec Regula
  213. P1 01:33
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Adam Henrique in defensive zone
  214. P1 01:33
    Stoppage - Icing
  215. P1 01:13
    Connor Dewar credited with hit on Alec Regula in neutral zone
  216. P1 00:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Leon Draisaitl
  217. P1 00:00
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  218. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Oilers
STATS
Penguins
23Shots on Goal30
62% Faceoff Win % 38%
4/3 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 6/1
12Penalty Infraction Mins8
8Hits27
19 Shots Blocked 8
14Giveaways16
OilersEDM
PenguinsPIT
23Shots on Goal30
62% Faceoff Win % 38%
4/3 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 6/1
12Penalty Infraction Mins8
8Hits27
19 Shots Blocked 8
14Giveaways16

Oilers vs. Penguins: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Oilers vs. Penguins
  • Date: Tuesday, December 16, 2025
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Oilers favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Oilers -140, Penguins +125

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Oilers: 55%
  • Penguins: 45%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Oilers a win probability of 55%, while the Penguins have a win probability of 45%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Oilers are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at PPG Paints Arena on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Oilers vs. Penguins predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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