Penguins vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Penguins vs. Lightning NHL game on April 2, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Penguins
3
6
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Penguins
2 0 1 3
Lightning
1 3 2 6
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Penguins
    0%
  • Lightning
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Penguins
2 0 1 3
Lightning
1 3 2 6
P3 19:59 Goal scored by Egor Chinakhov assisted by Anthony Mantha and Kris Letang
P3 19:58 Power play - Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:57 Bryan Rust shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P3 18:07 Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 15:32 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 12:33 Power play - Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P3 12:15 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 12:00 Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
P3 10:28 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ryan Shea saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:42 Shot on goal by Egor Chinakhov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:30 Kris Letang shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
P3 08:07 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 07:17 Rickard Rakell shot blocked by Mitchell Chaffee
P3 06:17 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 06:07 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 05:57 Shot missed by J.J. Moser
P3 04:57 Shot missed by Samuel Girard
P3 04:45 Kris Letang shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 04:11 Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 04:07 Power play - Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Ben Kindel
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:59
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Egor Chinakhov assisted by Anthony Mantha and Kris Letang
    3-6
  3. P3 19:59
    Penguins won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  4. P3 19:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  5. P3 19:09
    Takeaway by Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  6. P3 18:57
    SHOT
    Bryan Rust shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  7. P3 18:10
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  8. P3 18:10
    Penalty to Charle-Edouard D'Astous 2 minutes for Cross Checking (Drawn by Rickard Rakell)
  9. P3 18:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  10. P3 15:33
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  11. P3 15:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  12. P3 14:56
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  13. P3 14:56
    Stoppage - High Stick
  14. P3 14:07
    Noel Acciari won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  15. P3 14:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  16. P3 13:12
    Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov in neutral zone
  17. P3 12:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  18. P3 12:17
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  19. P3 12:15
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Stuart Skinner
  20. P3 12:02
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  21. P3 12:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
  22. P3 10:48
    Egor Chinakhov credited with hit on Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  23. P3 10:28
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ryan Shea saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  24. P3 10:15
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  25. P3 09:43
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Egor Chinakhov in defensive zone
  26. P3 09:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Egor Chinakhov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  27. P3 09:30
    SHOT
    Kris Letang shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  28. P3 08:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Stuart Skinner
  29. P3 07:35
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  30. P3 07:35
    Penalty to Emil Lilleberg 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Kris Letang)
  31. P3 07:17
    SHOT
    Rickard Rakell shot blocked by Mitchell Chaffee
  32. P3 06:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Stuart Skinner
  33. P3 06:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Stuart Skinner
  34. P3 05:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  35. P3 04:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Samuel Girard
  36. P3 04:45
    SHOT
    Kris Letang shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  37. P3 04:13
    Rickard Rakell won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  38. P3 04:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  39. P3 04:11
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Stuart Skinner
  40. P3 04:09
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  41. P3 04:07
    SHOT
    Power play - Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Ben Kindel
  42. P3 03:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Stuart Skinner
  43. P3 02:22
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Rickard Rakell in offensive zone
  44. P3 02:22
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  45. P3 01:55
    SHOT
    Power play - Brayden Point shot blocked by Connor Clifton
  46. P3 01:04
    Penalty to Evgeni Malkin 2 minutes for Cross Checking (Drawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand)
  47. P3 01:04
    Penalty to Oliver Bjorkstrand 2 minutes for Misconduct
  48. P3 01:04
    Penguins won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  49. P3 00:26
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  50. P3 00:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by Stuart Skinner
  51. P3 00:23
    Penguins won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
  52. P3 00:23
    Stoppage - Icing
  53. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  54. P2 19:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  55. P2 18:48
    Giveaway by Egor Chinakhov in offensive zone
  56. P2 18:41
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  57. P2 18:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Stuart Skinner
  58. P2 17:50
    Thomas Novak credited with hit on Gage Goncalves in offensive zone
  59. P2 17:26
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Rickard Rakell in offensive zone
  60. P2 17:26
    Stoppage - Icing
  61. P2 17:14
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Rickard Rakell in defensive zone
  62. P2 16:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  63. P2 16:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Stuart Skinner
  64. P2 16:26
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
  65. P2 16:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  66. P2 15:11
    Giveaway by Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
  67. P2 15:05
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Thomas Novak in defensive zone
  68. P2 15:05
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  69. P2 14:08
    Connor Dewar won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  70. P2 14:08
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brayden Point assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
    2-3
  71. P2 13:54
    SHOT
    Parker Wotherspoon shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
  72. P2 13:20
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ben Kindel in defensive zone
  73. P2 13:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  74. P2 12:44
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  75. P2 12:04
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  76. P2 12:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Evgeni Malkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  77. P2 11:22
    Giveaway by Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone
  78. P2 10:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Elmer Soderblom saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  79. P2 10:08
    Noel Acciari won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  80. P2 10:05
    SHOT
    Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Samuel Girard
  81. P2 10:04
    SHOT
    Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by Egor Chinakhov
  82. P2 09:08
    Takeaway by Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  83. P2 08:57
    SHOT
    Connor Clifton shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  84. P2 07:18
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Rickard Rakell in offensive zone
  85. P2 07:07
    Penguins won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  86. P2 06:29
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  87. P2 05:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  88. P2 05:03
    Giveaway by Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  89. P2 04:56
    Thomas Novak won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  90. P2 04:53
    Giveaway by Mitchell Chaffee in defensive zone
  91. P2 04:48
    SHOT
    Ryan Shea shot blocked by teammate
  92. P2 04:08
    SHOT
    Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Bryan Rust
  93. P2 03:50
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Samuel Girard
  94. P2 03:34
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Bryan Rust in defensive zone
  95. P2 03:28
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  96. P2 02:42
    Jake Guentzel credited with hit on Ben Kindel in offensive zone
  97. P2 02:37
    Connor Dewar won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  98. P2 02:37
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  99. P2 02:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  100. P2 02:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  101. P2 02:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor Clifton saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  102. P2 01:24
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Samuel Girard
  103. P2 01:11
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Samuel Girard
  104. P2 00:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor Dewar
  105. P2 00:11
    Power play - Connor Dewar won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  106. P2 00:11
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Stuart Skinner
  107. P2 00:00
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  108. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  109. P1 19:22
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Thomas Novak in defensive zone
  110. P1 19:20
    SHOT
    Egor Chinakhov shot blocked by Yanni Gourde
  111. P1 18:24
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
  112. P1 18:24
    Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Holding
  113. P1 17:52
    Connor Dewar won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  114. P1 17:52
    Penalty to Connor Clifton 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand)
  115. P1 17:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  116. P1 17:24
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Evgeni Malkin
  117. P1 16:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  118. P1 16:10
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Egor Chinakhov assisted by Bryan Rust and Samuel Girard
    2-1
  119. P1 15:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Egor Chinakhov
  120. P1 15:43
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  121. P1 15:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
  122. P1 15:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
  123. P1 14:46
    Rickard Rakell won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  124. P1 14:46
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  125. P1 14:43
    SHOT
    Zemgus Girgensons shot blocked by Sidney Crosby
  126. P1 13:04
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ben Kindel in defensive zone
  127. P1 13:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  128. P1 12:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  129. P1 12:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Stuart Skinner
  130. P1 11:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Stuart Skinner
  131. P1 11:20
    Stoppage - Icing
  132. P1 11:17
    Justin Brazeau credited with hit on J.J. Moser in offensive zone
  133. P1 11:14
    Penguins won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  134. P1 10:46
    Giveaway by Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  135. P1 10:40
    Giveaway by Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  136. P1 10:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Penguins saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  137. P1 09:52
    Noel Acciari won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  138. P1 08:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Evgeni Malkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  139. P1 08:38
    Giveaway by Rickard Rakell in defensive zone
  140. P1 08:25
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  141. P1 07:22
    Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon in defensive zone
  142. P1 07:05
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  143. P1 07:05
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  144. P1 06:06
    Parker Wotherspoon credited with hit on Mitchell Chaffee in neutral zone
  145. P1 05:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Egor Chinakhov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  146. P1 05:06
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  147. P1 05:06
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli assisted by Gage Goncalves and Oliver Bjorkstrand
    0-1
  148. P1 05:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  149. P1 04:37
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  150. P1 04:36
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
  151. P1 04:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  152. P1 03:53
    Giveaway by Evgeni Malkin in offensive zone
  153. P1 03:44
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  154. P1 03:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Stuart Skinner
  155. P1 03:25
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Connor Clifton
  156. P1 03:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Stuart Skinner
  157. P1 02:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  158. P1 01:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  159. P1 01:27
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Erik Karlsson
  160. P1 01:05
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
  161. P1 00:21
    J.J. Moser credited with hit on Bryan Rust in defensive zone
  162. P1 00:00
    Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stats
Penguins
STATS
Lightning
24Shots on Goal33
61% Faceoff Win % 39%
4/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins10
21Hits18
18 Shots Blocked 10
15Giveaways17
PenguinsPIT
LightningTB
24Shots on Goal33
61% Faceoff Win % 39%
4/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins10
21Hits18
18 Shots Blocked 10
15Giveaways17

Penguins vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Penguins vs. Lightning
  • Date: Thursday, April 2, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Penguins 40¢, Lightning 60¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Penguins: 40%
  • Lightning: 60%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Penguins a win probability of 40%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Penguins vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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