Lightning vs. Oilers Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Oilers NHL game on March 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Lightning
5
2
Rogers Place
Oilers
Rogers Place
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 3 2 5
Oilers
1 0 1 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Oilers
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 3 2 5
Oilers
1 0 1 2
P3 19:28 Shorthanded - Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli (Empty Net)
P3 18:56 Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 17:23 Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 15:31 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 11:15 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Connor Ingram
P3 10:58 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 10:32 Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
P3 10:04 Ty Emberson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 09:44 Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Connor Ingram
P3 08:19 Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 06:23 Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Roby Jarventie
P3 06:19 Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Adam Henrique
P3 03:54 Josh Samanski shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 03:21 Shot missed by Corey Perry
P3 03:05 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Connor Murphy
P3 02:22 Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Connor Ingram
P3 01:54 Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P3 00:53 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 00:52 Nick Paul shot blocked by Ty Emberson
P2 19:23 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Connor Ingram
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:28
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Josh Samanski in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:28
    GOAL
    Shorthanded - Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli (Empty Net)
    5-2
  4. P3 19:09
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
  5. P3 18:58
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  6. P3 18:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  7. P3 18:00
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  8. P3 18:00
    Stoppage - Offside
  9. P3 17:23
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  10. P3 15:50
    Shorthanded - Adam Henrique won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  11. P3 15:50
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  12. P3 15:32
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  13. P3 15:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  14. P3 13:58
    Jason Dickinson won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  15. P3 13:40
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Josh Samanski in defensive zone
  16. P3 13:40
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  17. P3 11:50
    Erik Cernak credited with hit on Zach Hyman in offensive zone
  18. P3 11:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Connor Ingram
  19. P3 10:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  20. P3 10:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
  21. P3 10:04
    SHOT
    Ty Emberson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
  22. P3 10:01
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  23. P3 09:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Connor Ingram
  24. P3 09:25
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  25. P3 09:25
    Stoppage - Icing
  26. P3 08:37
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
  27. P3 08:37
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  28. P3 08:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  29. P3 07:43
    Jason Dickinson won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  30. P3 07:16
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  31. P3 06:23
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Roby Jarventie
  32. P3 06:19
    SHOT
    Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Adam Henrique
  33. P3 05:24
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  34. P3 03:54
    SHOT
    Josh Samanski shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  35. P3 03:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Corey Perry
  36. P3 03:05
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Connor Murphy
  37. P3 02:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Connor Ingram
  38. P3 01:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
  39. P3 01:52
    Stoppage - Icing
  40. P3 01:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  41. P3 00:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  42. P3 00:52
    SHOT
    Nick Paul shot blocked by Ty Emberson
  43. P3 00:15
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Ty Emberson in defensive zone
  44. P3 00:00
    Josh Samanski won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  45. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  46. P2 19:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Connor Ingram
  47. P2 18:18
    Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in defensive zone
  48. P2 18:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  49. P2 17:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  50. P2 16:58
    Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Adam Henrique in neutral zone
  51. P2 16:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  52. P2 16:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  53. P2 15:34
    Power play - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
  54. P2 15:26
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Connor Ingram
  55. P2 14:47
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  56. P2 14:44
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
  57. P2 12:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mattias Ekholm
  58. P2 12:21
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  59. P2 12:21
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  60. P2 12:12
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point
    1-1
  61. P2 12:05
    Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  62. P2 12:03
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Connor Ingram
  63. P2 11:03
    Penalty to Vasily Podkolzin 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Anthony Cirelli)
  64. P2 11:03
    Penalty to Vasily Podkolzin 2 minutes for Misconduct
  65. P2 10:29
    Jason Dickinson won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  66. P2 10:29
    Penalty to Connor Murphy 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Pontus Holmberg)
  67. P2 10:29
    Penalty to Pontus Holmberg 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Connor Murphy)
  68. P2 09:23
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Roby Jarventie
  69. P2 08:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  70. P2 07:30
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Connor Murphy
  71. P2 07:29
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Connor Murphy
  72. P2 06:03
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
  73. P2 05:28
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McDavid in offensive zone
  74. P2 05:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Connor Ingram
  75. P2 05:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Dickinson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  76. P2 04:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  77. P2 04:24
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Jason Dickinson in offensive zone
  78. P2 04:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  79. P2 01:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Connor Ingram
  80. P2 01:33
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm
  81. P2 01:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Connor Ingram
  82. P2 00:11
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Josh Samanski in defensive zone
  83. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  84. P1 19:38
    Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  85. P1 19:34
    SHOT
    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
  86. P1 19:33
    Stoppage - Icing
  87. P1 18:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  88. P1 16:52
    SHOT
    Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Josh Samanski
  89. P1 16:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  90. P1 16:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  91. P1 15:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  92. P1 14:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ty Emberson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  93. P1 14:31
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  94. P1 14:16
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
  95. P1 14:16
    Stoppage - Icing
  96. P1 13:47
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  97. P1 13:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Savoie saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  98. P1 13:34
    Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  99. P1 13:10
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Connor McDavid
  100. P1 11:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brayden Point
  101. P1 10:53
    Jason Dickinson won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  102. P1 10:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Walman
  103. P1 09:58
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Connor Murphy
  104. P1 09:14
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  105. P1 09:10
    Lightning won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  106. P1 09:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Walman
  107. P1 08:24
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  108. P1 08:24
    Stoppage - Icing
  109. P1 07:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  110. P1 06:44
    Giveaway by Connor McDavid in offensive zone
  111. P1 06:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  112. P1 06:19
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Connor McDavid in offensive zone
  113. P1 06:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Connor Ingram
  114. P1 05:24
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Ty Emberson in offensive zone
  115. P1 05:14
    Stoppage - Offside
  116. P1 04:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  117. P1 04:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Connor Ingram
  118. P1 03:02
    SHOT
    Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  119. P1 02:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Connor Ingram
  120. P1 02:09
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  121. P1 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  122. P1 00:59
    Kasperi Kapanen credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
  123. P1 00:00
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Josh Samanski in neutral zone
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Oilers
27Shots on Goal27
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
18Penalty Infraction Mins18
11Hits28
13 Shots Blocked 16
19Giveaways18
LightningTB
OilersEDM
27Shots on Goal27
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
18Penalty Infraction Mins18
11Hits28
13 Shots Blocked 16
19Giveaways18

Lightning vs. Oilers: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Oilers
  • Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Rogers Place

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning 57¢, Oilers 44¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 54%
  • Oilers: 46%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 54%, while the Oilers have a win probability of 46%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Oilers in the NHL game at Rogers Place on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Oilers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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