Red Wings vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Red Wings vs. Lightning NHL game on March 12, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL sport icon
NHL
Red Wings
1
4
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Red Wings
0 0 1 1
Lightning
0 1 3 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Red Wings
    0%
  • Lightning
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Red Wings
0 0 1 1
Lightning
0 1 3 4
P3 19:05 Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P3 18:34 Shot on goal by Mason Appleton saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 16:20 Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
P3 13:58 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by John Gibson
P3 13:55 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by John Gibson
P3 13:40 Declan Carlile shot blocked by teammate
P3 12:20 Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Corey Perry
P3 10:36 Lucas Raymond shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 09:55 Shot on goal by Patrick Kane saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:09 Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 08:25 Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
P3 07:18 Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by John Gibson
P3 06:48 Shot missed by Emmitt Finnie
P3 05:53 Scott Sabourin shot blocked by Dominik Shine
P3 05:09 Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
P3 03:36 Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by John Gibson
P3 03:14 Shot on goal by Lucas Raymond saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 02:54 Shot on goal by Dominik Shine saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 02:16 Shot on goal by Sheldon Dries saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 01:22 Brayden Point shot blocked by Ben Chiarot
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
  3. P3 19:00
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  4. P3 18:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mason Appleton saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  5. P3 16:55
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sheldon Dries in neutral zone
  6. P3 16:22
    Marco Kasper won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  7. P3 16:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  8. P3 15:45
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  9. P3 15:11
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Marco Kasper in defensive zone
  10. P3 15:11
    Stoppage - Icing
  11. P3 13:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by John Gibson
  12. P3 13:56
    Red Wings won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  13. P3 13:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by John Gibson
  14. P3 13:40
    SHOT
    Declan Carlile shot blocked by teammate
  15. P3 13:34
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Marco Kasper in offensive zone
  16. P3 13:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  17. P3 12:20
    SHOT
    Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Corey Perry
  18. P3 10:36
    SHOT
    Lucas Raymond shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  19. P3 09:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Patrick Kane saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  20. P3 09:51
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  21. P3 09:44
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  22. P3 09:44
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  23. P3 09:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  24. P3 08:25
    SHOT
    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
  25. P3 07:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by John Gibson
  26. P3 07:05
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  27. P3 06:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Emmitt Finnie
  28. P3 05:53
    SHOT
    Scott Sabourin shot blocked by Dominik Shine
  29. P3 05:09
    SHOT
    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
  30. P3 03:40
    Brayden Point won faceoff against J.T. Compher in offensive zone
  31. P3 03:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by John Gibson
  32. P3 03:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lucas Raymond saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  33. P3 02:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dominik Shine saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  34. P3 02:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sheldon Dries saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  35. P3 01:40
    Michael Rasmussen won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  36. P3 01:35
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in neutral zone
  37. P3 01:22
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Ben Chiarot
  38. P3 00:21
    Emmitt Finnie won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  39. P3 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Marco Kasper in neutral zone
  40. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  41. P2 19:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by John Gibson
  42. P2 18:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by John Gibson
  43. P2 18:33
    Michael Rasmussen won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
  44. P2 18:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by John Gibson
  45. P2 17:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by John Gibson
  46. P2 17:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  47. P2 16:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Marco Kasper saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  48. P2 15:48
    SHOT
    Ben Chiarot shot blocked by Victor Hedman
  49. P2 15:36
    Giveaway by Victor Hedman in neutral zone
  50. P2 15:15
    Red Wings won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  51. P2 15:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by John Gibson
  52. P2 15:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  53. P2 14:01
    Emmitt Finnie credited with hit on Gage Goncalves in offensive zone
  54. P2 13:18
    Gage Goncalves won faceoff against Marco Kasper in offensive zone
  55. P2 13:18
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  56. P2 13:08
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Marco Kasper in defensive zone
  57. P2 13:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sheldon Dries saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  58. P2 12:43
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  59. P2 12:31
    Giveaway by Brayden Point in defensive zone
  60. P2 12:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Patrick Kane saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  61. P2 11:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  62. P2 11:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lucas Raymond
  63. P2 11:05
    Justin Faulk credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  64. P2 10:48
    Marco Kasper won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  65. P2 10:40
    Marco Kasper won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  66. P2 10:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Moritz Seider
  67. P2 10:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex DeBrincat saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  68. P2 09:46
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  69. P2 09:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by John Gibson
  70. P2 08:39
    Giveaway by James van Riemsdyk in offensive zone
  71. P2 08:34
    Takeaway by Justin Faulk in defensive zone
  72. P2 07:58
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Sheldon Dries in offensive zone
  73. P2 07:58
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  74. P2 07:11
    SHOT
    Victor Hedman shot blocked by J.T. Compher
  75. P2 06:43
    SHOT
    Lucas Raymond shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  76. P2 05:40
    Marco Kasper won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  77. P2 05:40
    Stoppage - Icing
  78. P2 05:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Moritz Seider
  79. P2 05:14
    SHOT
    Patrick Kane shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  80. P2 04:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Patrick Kane saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  81. P2 04:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by James van Riemsdyk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  82. P2 03:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan McDonagh
  83. P2 03:01
    Michael Rasmussen won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  84. P2 03:01
    Stoppage - Icing
  85. P2 02:16
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Emmitt Finnie
  86. P2 01:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  87. P2 01:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by John Gibson
  88. P2 00:49
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  89. P2 00:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  90. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  91. P1 19:53
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in offensive zone
  92. P1 19:47
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in offensive zone
  93. P1 19:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Marco Kasper
  94. P1 18:57
    SHOT
    Moritz Seider shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  95. P1 18:40
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen
  96. P1 17:56
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in defensive zone
  97. P1 16:54
    SHOT
    Power play - Lucas Raymond shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  98. P1 16:14
    Power play - J.T. Compher won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  99. P1 16:14
    Penalty to Nikita Kucherov 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Justin Faulk)
  100. P1 16:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by John Gibson
  101. P1 16:02
    Red Wings won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  102. P1 15:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by John Gibson
  103. P1 14:45
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Lucas Raymond
  104. P1 14:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by John Gibson
  105. P1 13:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  106. P1 13:15
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against J.T. Compher in defensive zone
  107. P1 13:15
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  108. P1 12:36
    Takeaway by Sheldon Dries in defensive zone
  109. P1 12:10
    SHOT
    Dominik Shine shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  110. P1 11:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  111. P1 11:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Corey Perry
  112. P1 10:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  113. P1 10:07
    Marco Kasper won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  114. P1 10:07
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  115. P1 10:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ben Chiarot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  116. P1 09:20
    J.T. Compher won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  117. P1 09:20
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  118. P1 08:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  119. P1 08:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by John Gibson
  120. P1 08:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by John Gibson
  121. P1 07:40
    Sheldon Dries won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  122. P1 07:40
    Stoppage - Icing
  123. P1 06:29
    Giveaway by Emmitt Finnie in defensive zone
  124. P1 05:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lucas Raymond
  125. P1 05:13
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Michael Rasmussen in offensive zone
  126. P1 04:53
    SHOT
    Victor Hedman shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen
  127. P1 04:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Justin Faulk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  128. P1 02:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Sabourin saved by John Gibson
  129. P1 02:15
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by James van Riemsdyk
  130. P1 01:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brayden Point
  131. P1 00:46
    Justin Faulk credited with hit on Victor Hedman in neutral zone
  132. P1 00:28
    Emmitt Finnie credited with hit on Victor Hedman in offensive zone
  133. P1 00:09
    Marco Kasper credited with hit on Victor Hedman in offensive zone
  134. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Red Wings
STATS
Lightning
25Shots on Goal28
50% Faceoff Win % 50%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/1
2Penalty Infraction Mins2
21Hits22
20 Shots Blocked 14
10Giveaways16
Red WingsDET
LightningTB
25Shots on Goal28
50% Faceoff Win % 50%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/1
2Penalty Infraction Mins2
21Hits22
20 Shots Blocked 14
10Giveaways16

Red Wings vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Red Wings vs. Lightning
  • Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Red Wings +185, Lightning -213

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Red Wings: 37%
  • Lightning: 63%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Red Wings a win probability of 37%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 63%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Red Wings in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Red Wings vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.