Capitals vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Capitals vs. Sabres NHL game on March 12, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Capitals
2
1
KeyBank Center
Sabres
KeyBank Center
TEAM123T
Capitals
0 1 1 2
Sabres
1 0 0 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Capitals
    100%
  • Sabres
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Capitals
0 1 1 2
Sabres
1 0 0 1
P3 18:55 Tage Thompson shot blocked by Matt Roy
P3 18:44 Tom Wilson shot blocked by Bowen Byram
P3 18:25 Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun
P3 18:19 Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by teammate
P3 14:50 Shot missed by Logan Stanley
P3 14:09 Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Tage Thompson
P3 13:11 Shot missed by Ryan McLeod
P3 11:42 Shot missed by Anthony Beauvillier
P3 11:29 Shot missed by Tage Thompson
P3 11:08 Tage Thompson shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
P3 10:59 Shot missed by Mattias Samuelsson
P3 09:31 Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by teammate
P3 08:59 Shot missed by Tage Thompson
P3 07:39 Shorthanded - Shot missed by Ryan McLeod
P3 05:12 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 04:46 Shot on goal by Hendrix Lapierre saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 03:20 Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 02:33 Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 01:51 Shot missed by Bowen Byram
P3 01:08 Zach Benson shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:16
    Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  3. P3 18:55
    SHOT
    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Matt Roy
  4. P3 18:44
    SHOT
    Tom Wilson shot blocked by Bowen Byram
  5. P3 18:25
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun
    2-1
  6. P3 18:19
    SHOT
    Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by teammate
  7. P3 17:00
    Connor McMichael credited with hit on Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  8. P3 16:00
    Stoppage - Icing
  9. P3 15:41
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  10. P3 15:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  11. P3 15:13
    Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  12. P3 14:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Logan Stanley
  13. P3 14:09
    SHOT
    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Tage Thompson
  14. P3 14:05
    Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  15. P3 13:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan McLeod
  16. P3 12:32
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  17. P3 12:32
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  18. P3 12:05
    Sam Carrick won faceoff against Pierre-Luc Dubois in defensive zone
  19. P3 11:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Beauvillier
  20. P3 11:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tage Thompson
  21. P3 11:08
    SHOT
    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
  22. P3 10:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mattias Samuelsson
  23. P3 09:40
    Takeaway by Timothy Liljegren in defensive zone
  24. P3 09:31
    SHOT
    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by teammate
  25. P3 09:28
    Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in offensive zone
  26. P3 08:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tage Thompson
  27. P3 08:07
    Shorthanded - Tage Thompson won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  28. P3 08:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  29. P3 07:49
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  30. P3 07:39
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Ryan McLeod
  31. P3 07:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  32. P3 06:08
    Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  33. P3 05:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Strome
  34. P3 04:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Hendrix Lapierre saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  35. P3 03:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Charlie Lindgren
  36. P3 03:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  37. P3 02:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Charlie Lindgren
  38. P3 01:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bowen Byram
  39. P3 01:08
    SHOT
    Zach Benson shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
  40. P3 00:30
    Jack Quinn credited with hit on Rasmus Sandin in offensive zone
  41. P3 00:22
    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin in neutral zone
  42. P3 00:19
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
  43. P3 00:00
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
  44. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  45. P2 19:49
    Takeaway by Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  46. P2 19:11
    SHOT
    Owen Power shot blocked by Matt Roy
  47. P2 19:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zach Benson
  48. P2 18:39
    Power play - Giveaway by Noah Ostlund in offensive zone
  49. P2 17:22
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Charlie Lindgren
  50. P2 17:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Josh Norris shot blocked by Matt Roy
  51. P2 16:41
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  52. P2 16:41
    Penalty to Martin Fehervary 2 minutes for Misconduct
  53. P2 16:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Charlie Lindgren
  54. P2 15:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Logan Stanley saved by Charlie Lindgren
  55. P2 14:24
    Shorthanded - Sam Carrick won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  56. P2 14:22
    SHOT
    Power play - Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Luke Schenn
  57. P2 13:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Ryan McLeod
  58. P2 12:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  59. P2 12:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tanner Pearson
  60. P2 11:28
    Giveaway by Trevor van Riemsdyk in defensive zone
  61. P2 09:58
    Takeaway by Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  62. P2 09:20
    Takeaway by Timothy Liljegren in defensive zone
  63. P2 08:54
    Mattias Samuelsson credited with hit on Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  64. P2 08:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Trevor van Riemsdyk saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  65. P2 08:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sam Carrick saved by Charlie Lindgren
  66. P2 08:25
    Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  67. P2 08:15
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  68. P2 08:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  69. P2 07:45
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in offensive zone
  70. P2 07:45
    Stoppage - Icing
  71. P2 06:59
    Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  72. P2 06:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Charlie Lindgren
  73. P2 06:00
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Jason Zucker in defensive zone
  74. P2 06:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  75. P2 05:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Beauvillier
  76. P2 05:07
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Anthony Beauvillier in defensive zone
  77. P2 04:32
    SHOT
    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Peyton Krebs
  78. P2 04:26
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  79. P2 04:11
    Giveaway by Trevor van Riemsdyk in offensive zone
  80. P2 03:20
    Takeaway by Bowen Byram in offensive zone
  81. P2 03:17
    Stoppage - Icing
  82. P2 02:52
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  83. P2 02:52
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  84. P2 02:47
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  85. P2 02:44
    SHOT
    Sam Carrick shot blocked by Justin Sourdif
  86. P2 02:14
    Sam Carrick won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
  87. P2 02:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
  88. P2 01:54
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  89. P2 01:22
    Hendrix Lapierre credited with hit on Bowen Byram in neutral zone
  90. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  91. P1 19:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Tage Thompson shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
  92. P1 19:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Charlie Lindgren
  93. P1 19:03
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Charlie Lindgren
  94. P1 18:17
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Anthony Beauvillier in defensive zone
  95. P1 17:50
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Tom Wilson in offensive zone
  96. P1 16:40
    SHOT
    Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Luke Schenn
  97. P1 15:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Charlie Lindgren
  98. P1 15:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Quinn
  99. P1 14:35
    Stoppage - Icing
  100. P1 14:13
    Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Sam Carrick in offensive zone
  101. P1 14:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McMichael
  102. P1 12:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
  103. P1 12:12
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  104. P1 11:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Charlie Lindgren
  105. P1 11:14
    Capitals won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  106. P1 10:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Quinn
  107. P1 09:55
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  108. P1 09:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  109. P1 08:41
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Beck Malenstyn in defensive zone
  110. P1 08:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  111. P1 07:38
    SHOT
    Owen Power shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
  112. P1 07:36
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Pierre-Luc Dubois in offensive zone
  113. P1 07:36
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  114. P1 06:02
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Noah Ostlund in neutral zone
  115. P1 05:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
  116. P1 05:31
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  117. P1 05:10
    Giveaway by Josh Doan in offensive zone
  118. P1 04:23
    Connor McMichael credited with hit on Luke Schenn in offensive zone
  119. P1 03:32
    Brandon Duhaime credited with hit on Bowen Byram in defensive zone
  120. P1 03:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bowen Byram saved by Charlie Lindgren
  121. P1 03:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  122. P1 02:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tanner Pearson saved by Charlie Lindgren
  123. P1 02:11
    Peyton Krebs credited with hit on Aliaksei Protas in offensive zone
  124. P1 01:57
    Giveaway by Charlie Lindgren in defensive zone
  125. P1 00:58
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  126. P1 00:30
    SHOT
    Matt Roy shot blocked by Jason Zucker
  127. P1 00:28
    SHOT
    Brandon Duhaime shot blocked by Jack Quinn
  128. P1 00:11
    Jason Zucker credited with hit on Matt Roy in offensive zone
  129. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Capitals
STATS
Sabres
22Shots on Goal30
40% Faceoff Win % 60%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
22Hits24
17 Shots Blocked 12
17Giveaways13
CapitalsWSH
SabresBUF
22Shots on Goal30
40% Faceoff Win % 60%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
22Hits24
17 Shots Blocked 12
17Giveaways13

Capitals vs. Sabres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Capitals vs. Sabres
  • Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Sabres favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Capitals +180, Sabres -194

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Capitals: 38%
  • Sabres: 62%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Capitals a win probability of 38%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 62%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Sabres are more likely to beat the Capitals in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Capitals vs. Sabres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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