Penguins vs. Sharks prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 11, 2026

The Pittsburgh Penguins are favored to beat the San Jose Sharks at SAP Center at San Jose on Wednesday (10:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Penguins vs. Sharks prediction gives Pittsburgh a 55.9% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 6.5 goals.

Penguins vs. Sharks key predictions

• Penguins win probability: 55.9%
• Sharks win probability: 44.1%
• Sharks +1.5 puck line: 65.3% cover probability
• Over 6.5 goals: 51.0% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Penguins vs. Sharks odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Penguins moneyline: -137 (BetRivers)
• Sharks moneyline: 43¢ (Novig)
• Penguins -1.5: +175 (BetRivers)
• Sharks +1.5: 64¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 56¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 45¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Penguins vs. Sharks pick: Under 6.5 (45¢)

Our model makes the Penguins the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 45¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 44.5%, while our model puts it at 49.0%.

That's a 4.5% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Penguins vs. Sharks goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Macklin Celebrini of the Sharks leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Wednesday's game at 43.7%, followed by Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby (36.0%). Celebrini also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 8.8%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Macklin Celebrini (Sharks): 43.7%
2. Sidney Crosby (Penguins): 36.0%
3. Rickard Rakell (Penguins): 35.1%
4. Will Smith (Sharks): 30.5%
5. Evgeni Malkin (Penguins): 28.2%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Macklin Celebrini (Sharks): 8.8%
2. Sidney Crosby (Penguins): 6.3%
3. Rickard Rakell (Penguins): 6.2%
4. Will Smith (Sharks): 5.7%
5. Evgeni Malkin (Penguins): 5.3%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Penguins vs. Sharks prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Penguins vs. Sharks predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Penguins vs. Sharks game details

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. San Jose Sharks
• Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026
• Puck drop: 10:00 PM ET
• Venue: SAP Center at San Jose

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.