Patriots vs. Bills prediction favors Buffalo to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Patriots-Bills predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Bills, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Bills a 71.5% chance of beating the Patriots in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 27-21.

Key factors favoring the Bills:

• Buffalo Bills Offense
• Buffalo Bills Team Rating
• New England Patriots QB Situation

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Patriots and Bills each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 50.5 points has a 53.1% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Playing Conditions
• QB Rating

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Patriots +6.5 (+111) / Bills -6.5 (-113)
• Moneyline: Patriots +277, Bills -285
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (+108/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Patriots +6.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Patriots @ 27¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 50.5 @ 52¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Patriots +6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Patriots vs. Bills TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Bills?

According to our model, Josh Allen is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Bills.

Our projections give Allen a 56.2% chance of scoring a TD at Highmark Stadium, while the quarterback is a 12.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 39.0% probability
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 33.2%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 23.6%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 20.8%
• Mack Hollins (WR): 19.7%

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 56.2% prob.
• James Cook (RB): 53.7%
• DJ Moore (WR): 37.4%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 29.1%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 20.8%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 8.2% prob.
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 6.7%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 4.5%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 3.9%
• Mack Hollins (WR): 3.6%

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 12.9% prob.
• James Cook (RB): 12.0%
• DJ Moore (WR): 7.3%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 5.4%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 3.6%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Bills. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 233 passing yards. The Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 239 yards.

Patriots rushing

• TreVeyon Henderson: 40 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 37 yds
• Drake Maye: 31 yds

Bills rushing

• James Cook: 91 yds
• Josh Allen: 36 yds
• Ty Johnson: 11 yds

Patriots receiving

• Mack Hollins: 50 yds
• Romeo Doubs: 45 yds
• Hunter Henry: 37 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 35 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 22 yds

Bills receiving

• DJ Moore: 56 yds
• Dalton Kincaid: 52 yds
• Khalil Shakir: 43 yds
• Keon Coleman: 21 yds
• Ty Johnson: 15 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 game between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 71.5% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.